705
FXAK67 PAJK 151953 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1153 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATE
WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE,
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES INTO PETERSBURG AND SKAGWAY THIS
MORNING, AS WELL AS ISSUED A NEW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
SEVERAL AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SEE SHORT
TERM UPDATE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NOT THE BEST DAY FOR FLYING VFR IN
SE ALASKA. SEE AVIATION UPDATE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE UP CHATHAM STRAIT
AREA, INTO THE LYNN CANAL AREA, AND EXIT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
WITH THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE COMES SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST: AN UPGRADE OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA, TWO NEW WIND ADVISORIES FOR SKAGWAY
AND PETERSBURG, NEW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, AND SEVERAL NEW GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE MARINE WATERS.
LARGEST DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IS TWOFOLD: THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE SUMNER
STRAIT & NORTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AREA, SPECIFICALLY THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT, AND THE TIMING OF SHIFTING
WESTERLY WINDS, AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH MAY BRING A
FRESH ROUND OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR THE JUNEAU AREA. FOR THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, SEEING A FRESH INJECTION OF STRONGER
DYNAMICS SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONGER
LOW, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO IMPACT BARANOF ISLAND INCLUDING SITKA BEFORE
MOVING UP INTO JUNEAU AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, HAINES, AND
SKAGWAY DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. JUNEAU IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN HERE, AS
RIVERS WERE ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE RUNNING HIGH AROUND THIS TIME
FRAME, AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD TIP INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
FOR FLASHIER CREEKS SUCH AS JORDAN CREEK AND MONTANA CREEK.
AVIATION UPDATE
CONTINUING THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, WE CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
MOVING THROUGH (LOWER CEILINGS) AS BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVE
ACROSS WITH THE PASSING FRONT THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWER CEILING AND PERIODIC LOWER VISIBILITIES (IN
RAIN), LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO HAVING IMPACTS WITH JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES CARRYING A LLWS GROUP FOR AST LEAST THE NEXT
6 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A SLIGHT DROPOFF ON THE STRONGER
WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE),
HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CETNRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
SECONDARY LOW MOVING IN. LONG TERM PREVAILING VFR THAT YOU CAN
COUNT ON FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST PERIOD. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 600 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE ANTICIPATED FRONT HAS REACHED SE AK BRINGING RAIN AND
INCREASED WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH RAIN
RATES AS HIGH AS 0.25 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WIND GUST WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SATURDAY / A TROPICALLY MOISTURE ENHANCE
MOISTURE PLUM WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER FRONT HEADED NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE FOR
SEVERAL COMMUNITIES AND OBSERVATIONS IN KNOW TO BE WINDIER SPOTS
OR ENHANCED LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER THIS
MORNING. THE LEAD FEATURE THIS MORNING LANDFALLING IN THE NORTH,
WHILE CLOSER TRAILING WAVE WITH MOVE MORE OVER TEH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES MORNING IS SUGGESTING
RATES ABOUT 0.2 INCHES TO 0.30 INCHES AN HOUR, BUT MAY SEE SOME
HIGHER RATE WHEN TERRAIN EFFECTS START ASSISTING THAT. THIS
MOISTURE STREAM HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH FORMER TYPHOON
MOISTURE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE PLUME AND WILL LIKELY BRING 2 TO
3.5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REGION. THE PLUME WILL ALSO
RAISE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY, AND ANY THURSDAY
MORNING THE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO BE
WIPED OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW LEVELS RISE CLOSER TO
5000 FT. EXPECT STREAM TO RISE INT HE NORTH THIS MORNING AS AS
WELL AS OVER THE SOUTH, BUT WITH A THIRDS SYSTEM LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR ISSUES, SO
THUS THE FLOOD WATCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA.
LONG TERM...THE START OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PERSIST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES WHILE A STRONGER LOW LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CANADA. BEHIND THIS LOW, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE GULF BEHIND THIS STRONGER LOW WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR US TO SEE A BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HEADED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING
ANOTHER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EPS
AND GEFS GUIDANCE IS WHERE THIS LOW COMES FROM. EPS WANTS TO BRING A
LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND HAVE IT MERGE WITH A LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE COOK
INLET AREA TUESDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING THE LOW
FROM THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND COOK INLET BEFORE MOVING REMAINING OFFSHORE NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A FRONT HAS REACHED THE AREA BRINGING TIMES OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW AREAS ARE HOLDING ON THE VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT CEILINGS ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL SOON BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CEILINGS AOB 3000 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4 TO 6 SM, WITH LOCATIONS SEEING
VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND 2 SM DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR THE KETCHIKAN
AIRPORT AS RAIN RATES INCREASED. ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS
AND LLWS QUICKLY APPROACHED THE AREA WITH THIS FRONT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL ALSO
SEE THESE STRONG GUSTS, LASTING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SIMILARLY
LLWS WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS AT 2000 FT.
BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT, A BRIEF BREAK IN HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS
BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, MOST
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT
AND OUT ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND. BUMPED CROSS SOUND TO GALE
FORCE THIS MORNING WITH EAST GALES. THE NEXT TAILING LOW TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, LOOKS TO MOVER INLAND NEAR THE NORTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO
SOUTHER STEPHEN PASSAGE AS IT FALLS PART. THINK THAT WILL WILL BE
BURST OF GALES FRIDAY MORNING OF THE CLARENCE STRAIT ARE, AND AS
TEH REMAIN OF THE FILLING LOW HEADS NORTH, I TRIED TO INCLUDE A
WIND PUSH AS IT MOVES NORTH, I TRIED TO ADD TO THE GRID TO ABOUT
THE JUNEAU ARE. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE THE WINDS WHEN THEY PICK UP.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. 25 TO 35 KT WINDS HAVE PUSHED INTO AND
THEN OUT OF PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS. THE OLD LOW IS WEST
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED SLOWLY WEAKEN THEN THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE LOOK TO BE LESS THAT 25 KT AS THE OLD
LOW MOVES EAST, HELPING TO SPREAD IN SOME MORE SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE OF THE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/
A STRONG INCOMING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. TWO DISTINCT FRONTAL FEATURES MAKE UP A BULK OF THE HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE: THE FIRST DURING
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE NEXT THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE FOR THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
INCREASED, WITH GUIDANCE NARROWING IN ON AN AREA EXTENDING FROM
PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL DOWN TO KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA. IVT
VALUES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-750 KG/MS, WITH MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE AREA MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE LEANING TOWARDS 750 KG/MS
FOR BOTH WAVES, WITH THE SECOND WAVE STILL APPEARING TO PUSH FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA
CONTINUE TO BE THE TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY HERE, WITH RAIN RATES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND UP TO 0.25 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THESE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
ALONGSIDE THESE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 5 YEAR
RETURN INTERVALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON ELEVATED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-50
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED LANDSLIDES OCCURRING IN AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ322.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ323-325.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ326-329.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ326>330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641-642-652-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644-
651-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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