778
FXAK67 PAJK 160011
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGE:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. A
FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE.
- A STRONG LOW MOVING UP CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL WILL CAUSE
QUICKLY CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS IN THE INNER CHANNELS AND LAND
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
MAIN STORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING UP INTO THE PANHANDLE, ROTATING AROUND A
PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TODAY, CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.15-0.30 IN/HR
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALREADY FALLEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM KETCHIKAN UP TO PETERSBURG ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGE. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND
AROUND CHATHAM STRAIT / BARANOF ISLAND TONIGHT, MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BRINGING BOTH ANOTHER BURST OF ELEVATED
WINDS AND A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING UP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE AREA FROM BARANOF ISLAND UP TO JUNEAU
IS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AREAS FROM SITKA UP
ALONG FREDERICK SOUND / STEPHENS PASSAGE TO THE JUNEAU AREA WILL
SEE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, AND WITH IT
MAY SEE SOME RIVER AND CREEK RISES. JUNEAU IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
CREEKS IN MENDENHALL VALLEY NOW BEING UNDER A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS, AND HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM...THE START OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PERSIST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES WHILE A STRONGER LOW LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CANADA. BEHIND THIS LOW, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE GULF BEHIND THIS STRONGER LOW WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR US TO SEE A BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HEADED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING
ANOTHER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EPS
AND GEFS GUIDANCE IS WHERE THIS LOW COMES FROM. EPS WANTS TO BRING A
LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND HAVE IT MERGE WITH A LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE COOK
INLET AREA TUESDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING THE LOW
FROM THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND COOK INLET BEFORE MOVING REMAINING OFFSHORE NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AVIATION
THE FIRST BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN (IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS) AND
STRONGER WINDS (AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR) ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES PUSHING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST
AND WEAKENS TONIGHT, RAINS AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH,
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SMALL LOW WILL RIDE UP THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION AND
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT FOR SOME GUSTIER WINDS,
AND WILL ALSO FOCUS MORE HEAVIER RAINS (LOWER CEILINGS) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW
WEAKENS. 05/GARMON
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS:
LARGELY A DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH A BULK OF
THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND ENERGY. THEREFORE, KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AROUND NEAR GALE
TO GALE FOR DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE WESTERN COAST OF POW. SIMILAR
STORY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH SUBSIDING WAVES FROM AROUND 20 FT
DOWN TO 8-10 FT. LOOKING TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TOMORROW, WITH A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS.
INSIDE WATERS:
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE INNER CHANNEL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD UP CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EAST OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERLIES UP TO
30 KNOTS WILL TRANSITION SHARPLY TO WESTERLIES AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD,
SLIGHT WESTERLIES UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST IN PLACES LIKE ICY
STRAIT AND PERIL STRAIT. NORTH OF THE LOW, LIGHT WINDS TO 10 KNOT
NORTHERLIES WILL PRECEED THE LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE,
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADICALLY DIFFERENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS
DEPENDING ON ANY GIVEN LOCATIONS PLACEMENT IN RELATION TO THE LOW.
BEHIND THE LOW, AFTER THE INITIAL WESTERLIES FROM THE COLD
OCCLUDED FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE PANHANDLE, WITH CONTINUED IVT VALUES OF OVER 500
KG/MS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SWIFTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM KETCHIKAN UP
TO PETERSBURG. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AS IT AND MOVES NORTHWARD, PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND BRINGING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO IMPACT BARANOF ISLAND UP TO
JUNEAU, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL PUSHING MORE NORTHWARD OF
THE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER A FLOOD WATCH, A FLOOD
ADVISORY AND TWO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR
THE FLOOD ADVISORY, THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LONGER DURATION FOR THE
JUNEAU AREA WILL BRING MINOR FLOODING TO MONTANA CREEK AND JORDAN
CREEK BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY BEING OUT UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO JORDAN CREEK IN PARTICULAR TAKING LONGER TO
FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS,
THE REST OF JUNEAU IS INCLUDED IN ONE AS OTHER STREAMS IN THE AREA
BESIDES MONTANA CREEK AND JORDAN MAY STILL SEE RISES INTO FRIDAY,
HOWEVER FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN FOR THESE OTHER STREAMS AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE RIVER AND CREEK RISES EXPECTED WITH
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER FLOODING IS ALSO NOT A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ323-325.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ326>330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ326-329.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-652-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-651-
662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...CONTINO
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