182
FXAK67 PAJK 160647
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1047 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION AND 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE...FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH ACROSS KETCHIKAN AND
ANNETTE ISLAND. ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KETCHIKAN AREA AFTER
RECEIVING REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS AND MINOR SLIDE ACTIVITY.
ALSO INCREASED WINDS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION AS SHORT
TERM MESO MODELS ARE INDICATING GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTHERLIES WILL DEVELOP
BENIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND SKAGWAY.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. A
FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE.
- A STRONG LOW MOVING UP CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL WILL CAUSE
QUICKLY CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS IN THE INNER CHANNELS AND LAND
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
MAIN STORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING UP INTO THE PANHANDLE, ROTATING AROUND A
PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TODAY, CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.15-0.30 IN/HR
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALREADY FALLEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM KETCHIKAN UP TO PETERSBURG ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGE. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND
AROUND CHATHAM STRAIT / BARANOF ISLAND TONIGHT, MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BRINGING BOTH ANOTHER BURST OF ELEVATED
WINDS AND A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING UP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE AREA FROM BARANOF ISLAND UP TO JUNEAU
IS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AREAS FROM SITKA UP
ALONG FREDERICK SOUND / STEPHENS PASSAGE TO THE JUNEAU AREA WILL
SEE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, AND WITH IT
MAY SEE SOME RIVER AND CREEK RISES. JUNEAU IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
CREEKS IN MENDENHALL VALLEY NOW BEING UNDER A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS, AND HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY, AS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS, ANOTHER LOW PASSING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE GULF INTO SEAK. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT QUICKLY
SWING THROUGH THE GULF INTO SEAK ON MONDAY, LIKELY REACHING
YAKUTAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SWINGING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER LARGE, GALE FORCE TO POTENTIAL STORM FORCE, LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SENDING A ANOTHER FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE FEED TOWARD
SEAK. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN,
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT
STILL PERSIST. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THE
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLIES AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR CLARENCE AND
NORTHERN LYNN.
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 6Z SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT
CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. SOME AREAS ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB 500 FT AS HEAVIER SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF SITES ARE STAYING WITHIN
LOW-END IFR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, SEEING CIGS AROUND 1500 TO
2500 FT AND RESTRICTED VIS AS LOW AS 1 SM. STRONG WINDS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE LOWERED CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KTS BEING SEEN PERIODICALLY FOR MANY SITES. BREAKS ARE
EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL, WHICH MAY BRING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BACK UP TO VFR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD BRING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT BEFORE STEADILY
TRENDING UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREAKS IN BETWEEN AROUND 20Z TO 0Z,
WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. LLWS
PERSISTS FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS:
LARGELY A DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH A BULK OF
THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND ENERGY. THEREFORE, KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AROUND NEAR GALE
TO GALE FOR DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE WESTERN COAST OF POW. SIMILAR
STORY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH SUBSIDING WAVES FROM AROUND 20 FT
DOWN TO 8-10 FT. LOOKING TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TOMORROW, WITH A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS.
INSIDE WATERS:
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE INNER CHANNEL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD UP CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EAST OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERLIES UP TO
30 KNOTS WILL TRANSITION SHARPLY TO WESTERLIES AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD,
SLIGHT WESTERLIES UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST IN PLACES LIKE ICY
STRAIT AND PERIL STRAIT. NORTH OF THE LOW, LIGHT WINDS TO 10 KNOT
NORTHERLIES WILL PROCEED THE LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE,
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADICALLY DIFFERENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS
DEPENDING ON ANY GIVEN LOCATIONS PLACEMENT IN RELATION TO THE LOW.
BEHIND THE LOW, AFTER THE INITIAL WESTERLIES FROM THE COLD
OCCLUDED FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE PANHANDLE, WITH CONTINUED IVT VALUES OF OVER 500
KG/MS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SWIFTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM KETCHIKAN UP
TO PETERSBURG. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AS IT AND MOVES NORTHWARD, PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND BRINGING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO IMPACT BARANOF ISLAND UP TO
JUNEAU, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL PUSHING MORE NORTHWARD OF
THE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER A FLOOD WATCH, A FLOOD
ADVISORY AND TWO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR
THE FLOOD ADVISORY, THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LONGER DURATION FOR THE
JUNEAU AREA WILL BRING MINOR FLOODING TO MONTANA CREEK AND JORDAN
CREEK BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY BEING OUT UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO JORDAN CREEK IN PARTICULAR TAKING LONGER TO
FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS,
THE REST OF JUNEAU IS INCLUDED IN ONE AS OTHER STREAMS IN THE AREA
BESIDES MONTANA CREEK AND JORDAN MAY STILL SEE RISES INTO FRIDAY,
HOWEVER FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN FOR THESE OTHER STREAMS AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE RIVER AND CREEK RISES EXPECTED WITH
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER FLOODING IS ALSO NOT A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ326>330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ326-329.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-641-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-031>035-053-642>644-651-652-
662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...CONTINO
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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