899
FXAK67 PAJK 161905 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1104 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CORRECTED UPDATE SECTION...
UPDATE
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS,
AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, WE
CONTINUE SEEING A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND ON RAIN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AND WIND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE
FOR REMOVAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ZONES, LEAVING SKAGWAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARINE
HAZARDS ARE ALL AT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED. ALL EYES NOW TURN TO THE
CENTRAL GULFAK LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
THAT WILL POTENTIALLY BRING, INITIALLY TO MARITIME INTEREST OVER THE
EASTERN GULFAK. 05/GARMON
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)
WE HAVE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 1
PM, BUT GENERALLY WE EXPECT THAT TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RAINS BECOME MORE PATCHY (LESS CONCENTRATED AND LIGHTER)
WITH WATER LEVELS START DROPPING IN THE RIVERS AND ANY ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS DROP OFF. THE ONLY REMAINING AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY IS
SKAGWAY, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THERE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 7 PM.
AVIATION (UPDATE)
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR OBSERVATIONS
BEING NOTED ACROSS SEAK LATE THIS MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT
STARTS TO DISSPATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WE DO EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT BREEZY OUT THERE FOR
JUNEAU NORTH TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 15-33KTS AT TIMES. SKAGWAY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (TO AROUND 33 KTS)
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z THEN WE SHOULD START TO SEE A
WEAKENING/DECOUPLING TREND ON WINDS AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 617 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
REPLACED BY INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.
- BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER
ANOTHER FRONT AND ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND PUSH ACROSS THE GULF
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND. OVERALL FORECAST HAS
REMAINED ON TRACK, WITH OUR FIRST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM JUNEAU
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PANHANDLE, WITH CONSTANT RAIN RATES AROUND 0.2
AN INCH PER HOUR, SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 0.3 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE PREVIOUS
TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED IS AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR KETCHIKAN AND
METLAKATLA, NEAR 8 INCHES AT THE SILVIS POWERHOUSE AROUND 800FT,
AND AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
MOVING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF BREAKS IN
BETWEEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
INLAND, STILL SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. WITH ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM, BE WARY OF ERRATIC
WINDS, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
LASTLY, AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER, PRECIPITATION
TYPE BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE (AKA WILL IT BE RAIN, SNOW, OR
BOTH?) AND MORE PREVALENT. WITH THIS LATEST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, DID ADD IN A FEW HOURS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SKAGWAY NEAR
WHITE PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ALBEIT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
OVERNIGHT, STRONG WIND GUSTS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER
HYDABURG, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH INLAND, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW. STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE NEAR SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH. THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY, AS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS, ANOTHER LOW PASSING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE GULF INTO SEAK. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT QUICKLY
SWING THROUGH THE GULF INTO SEAK ON MONDAY, LIKELY REACHING
YAKUTAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SWINGING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER LARGE, GALE FORCE TO POTENTIAL STORM FORCE, LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SENDING A ANOTHER FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE FEED TOWARD
SEAK. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN,
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT
STILL PERSIST. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THE
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLIES AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR CLARENCE AND
NORTHERN LYNN.
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR FLYING THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR TO MVFR WITH THE RAIN AND WIND. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WINDS ARE ALSO ELEVATED THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE GUSTS HAVE
BEEN GETTING UP TO 40-50 KT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING US MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA.
WHEN THIS HAPPENS, WINDS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWN FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT WILL INCREASE FOR PLACES SUCH AS SKAGWAY
AND HAINES. THE PERSISTENT RAIN WILL ALSO COME TO AN END BUT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVIER AT TIMES AND MIGHT REDUCE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: OVERALL WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE GULF
AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 9 TO 12 FT.
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS NEXT LOW
WILL ACTUALLY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 TO 15 FT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AROUND
THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS
REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN GULF THAT
WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CAUSING
THESE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING STRONG
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
INSIDE WATERS: A STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
INSIDE WATERS. CURRENTLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER STEPHENS
PASSAGE WITH WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH INLAND, LYNN CANAL WILL START TO SEE INCREASED WINDS TO AROUND
30 TO 35 KTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST LONGER OVER NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL, REMAINING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHANNELS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, AROUND
15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
ONCE AGAIN BRINGING INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ326>330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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