234
FXAK67 PAJK 162332
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- IN THE SHORT TERM, ON THE DOWNWARD SWING WITH IMPACTFUL WEATHER
AS A FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE COAST RANGE OF SE ALASKA. HEAVY RAIN
AND SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS HAVE DIMINISHED.
- BRIEF BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT AND ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND WIND
PUSH ACROSS THE GULF BY TUESDAY.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL/STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULFAK TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN, BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERY WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT COMPARED TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER SOME
AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR MISTY
FJORDS MAY SEE SOME MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK TONIGHT IN THE SHOWERS, WITH MUCH OF THE NEXT ROUNDS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS WELL BY TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A BREAK PERIOD
BETWEEN THE SHOWERS, HOWEVER THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DIMINISHES IN THE NORTHERN GULF, HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONGER TERM...NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FIRST FALL STORM SYSTEM NOW HAVING MOVED THROUGH SEAK,
OUR EYES START TURNING TO THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES
AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING A RATHER IMPACTFUL/STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 960 MB) OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULFAK TUESDAY, WITH A RATHER LARGE/EXTENSIVE AREA OF STORM FORCE
WINDS (48-55 KTS) AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT EXTENDING WELL EAST
OF THAT LOW CENTER INTO THE EASTERN GULFAK AND ALONG THE OUTER
COAST FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTHWARD. THIS IS SOMETHING MARITIME
INTERESTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRANSITING THE GULFAK. SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW. AS FOR IMPACTS TO SEAK SPECIFICALLY, THE FRONT
EXTENDING EAST OF THAT LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SEAK TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS. STAY TUNED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS GULF STORM
SYSTEM. 05/GARMON
AVIATION
THE LAST LOCATION TO REPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS WAS TREE
POINT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KETCHIKAN AND SOUTH OF MISTY FJORDS AT 1
PM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
VFR TO MVFR RANGES. WE CONTINUE WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS JUST EAST OF
YAKUTAT (ABOUT 20 MILES EAST) AND TO THE EAST OF KETCHIKAN INTO
MISTY FJORDS. CHANCES FOR IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SMALL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OUT THERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF SITKA OVER
THE GULFAK. WE EXPECT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING, AND WE EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/CEILINGS. QUESTION IS, HOW
MUCH FOG CAN HAPPEN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF WE CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE FRONT? RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS NOT PINGING ON FOG PRODUCTION
GIVEN LIGHT MIXING AND CLOUDCOVER, HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 05/GARMON
MARINE
OUTER WATERS:
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS SWINGING
ACROSS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM, GENERATING 25-30 KNOT
SOUTHERLIES IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 FT OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE
SPENCER AND CAPE EDGECOMBE. MAY ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE LOW
PRESSURE, THEN VERTICALLY STACKED, SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST, KEEPING UP TO 20 KNOT WESTERLIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY), A
POTENT LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF, AS NOTED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATED A BARRIER JET LOOKS TO FORM
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, GENERATING STORM FORCE WINDS EAST OF CAPE
ST. ELIAS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS
MODERATE TO LOW. THERE IS EVIDENCE IN ENSEMBLES THAT NEW LOW
CENTERS WILL GENERATE ALONG THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
WHICH WOULD MOVE AROUND THE LOW. THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS WOULD
SHIFT HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS MUCH FURTHER DOWN THE COAST, TO AROUND
CAPE SPENCER AT THE FURTHEST WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS, VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL UPWARDS OF 22 FT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 25 FT IN THE GULF WATERS.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
INSIDE WATERS:
LEADING INTO THE FRONT, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CLARENCE STRAIT MAY DECOUPLE WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM RECENT
SHOWERS MAY GENERATE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONT. THE FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO BRING UP SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS, AND
ASSOCIATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, LOOK TO BE FOR LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. DEFINITELY POSSIBLY TO SEE AN UPGRADE TO 25 KNOT
WINDS FOR NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, BUT DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HYDROLOGY
WITH THE END OF THE LARGER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM THIS
MORNING, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED, EVEN AS SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY STILL BE AT
THEIR CREST INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL MOST STREAMS HAVE CRESTED
BY THE MORNING / AFTERNOON AND ALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO TONIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. ANY SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT, AND EVEN IF SOME MORE PRODUCTIVE CELLS BRING
PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THEY WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND
NOT PERSISTENT, WITH LONGER BREAKS BETWEEN EVEN THE MORE
ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
MARINE...COMPTON
HYDROLOGY...CONTINO
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