798
FXAK67 PAJK 170630
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1030 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DID SEE A BIT OF
LIGHTING PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT THAT
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND
CAPE SUCKLING. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AS A BIT OF CLEARING AND
LIGHTER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE UNDER WEAK
RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- IN THE SHORT TERM, ON THE DOWNWARD SWING WITH IMPACTFUL WEATHER
AS A FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE COAST RANGE OF SE ALASKA. HEAVY RAIN
AND SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS HAVE DIMINISHED.
- BRIEF BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT AND ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND WIND
PUSH ACROSS THE GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL/STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN, BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERY WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT COMPARED TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER SOME
AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR MISTY
FJORDS MAY SEE SOME MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK TONIGHT IN THE SHOWERS, WITH MUCH OF THE NEXT ROUNDS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS WELL BY TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A BREAK PERIOD
BETWEEN THE SHOWERS, HOWEVER THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DIMINISHES IN THE NORTHERN GULF, HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN ACTIVE FALL-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SEAK NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL TREK
ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH YAKUTAT MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND BRINGING STEADY RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, A STRONGER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY (~960 MB) AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON TUESDAY, STALLING THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING ON THURSDAY. THIS
STRONG LOW WILL QUICKLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED TOWARD AND THROUGH SEAK TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SEVERE
MARINE HAZARDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS IN INNER
CHANNELS SUCH AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH
GALES (34-47 KT) AND POSSIBLY STORM-FORCE WINDS (48–55 KTS) AND
COMBINED SEAS EXCEEDING 20 FEET ALONG OUTER COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY
FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WEAKENS, THOUGH LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUSTAIN RAIN SHOWERS,
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW 50S POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFF THE GULF COAST FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW TRACKING INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TAF SITES
AS CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. AT MOST, SOME MATURING CELLS
COULD BRING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS SHOWERS
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION, CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE IS SENDING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SE PRINCE OF
WALES AND KETCHIKAN KEEPING THESE AREAS GENERALLY FOG FREE. THE
CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL REGION HAS CAUSED LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG SETTLING NEAR
RUNWAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER-LEVEL STABILITY,
WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WITH FOG LIKELY
ERODING BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z AS THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS INCOMING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS, AS HEAVIER SHOWERS REDUCE
VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS TO 1000 FEET AT TIMES. NEVERTHELESS, MOST
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PREDOMINANTLY HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-
END VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD AS ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS:
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS SWINGING
ACROSS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM, GENERATING 25-30 KNOT
SOUTHERLIES IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 FT OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE
SPENCER AND CAPE EDGECOMBE. MAY ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE LOW
PRESSURE, THEN VERTICALLY STACKED, SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST, KEEPING UP TO 20 KNOT WESTERLIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY), A
POTENT LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF, AS NOTED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATED A BARRIER JET LOOKS TO FORM
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, GENERATING STORM FORCE WINDS EAST OF CAPE
ST. ELIAS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS
MODERATE TO LOW. THERE IS EVIDENCE IN ENSEMBLES THAT NEW LOW
CENTERS WILL GENERATE ALONG THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
WHICH WOULD MOVE AROUND THE LOW. THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS WOULD
SHIFT HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS MUCH FURTHER DOWN THE COAST, TO AROUND
CAPE SPENCER AT THE FURTHEST WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS, VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL UPWARDS OF 22 FT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 25 FT IN THE GULF WATERS.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
INSIDE WATERS:
LEADING INTO THE FRONT, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CLARENCE STRAIT MAY DECOUPLE WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM RECENT
SHOWERS MAY GENERATE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONT. THE FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO BRING UP SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS, AND
ASSOCIATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, LOOK TO BE FOR LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. DEFINITELY POSSIBLY TO SEE AN UPGRADE TO 25 KNOT
WINDS FOR NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, BUT DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HYDROLOGY
WITH THE END OF THE LARGER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SYSTEM
THIS MORNING, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED, EVEN AS
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY
STILL BE AT THEIR CREST INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL MOST
STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BY THE MORNING / AFTERNOON AND ALL ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL INTO TONIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. ANY
SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT, AND EVEN
IF SOME MORE PRODUCTIVE CELLS BRING PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, THEY WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND NOT PERSISTENT, WITH LONGER
BREAKS BETWEEN EVEN THE MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...CONTINO
HYDROLOGY...CONTINO
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