872
FXAK67 PAJK 171317
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
517 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- BRIEF BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT AND ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND
WIND PUSH ACROSS THE GULF BY TUESDAY.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL/STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS SATURDAY MORNING, SENDING A FRONT INTO THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITH RAIN ONGOING AT YAKUTAT AND SITKA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRANSITS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE YAKUTAT BAY AREA AND
WEAKENS. THINKING ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN GET SOME LEVEL
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACTION, HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH, ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO
ANGOON TO JUNEAU. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAIN EVENT, AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING AROUND 0.1" AN HOUR.
FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE PANHANDLE, WITH A DEPARTING SEPARATE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF HAIDA GWAII INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IN TANDEM
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS
AND CALM WINDS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, WITH LOCAL
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND A FEW
COMMUNITIES ON PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THIS FOG HAS BEEN WAVERING
UP AND DOWN THE LAST FEW HOURS UNDER ONE MILE OF VISIBILITIES AT
TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE
FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SKIES AND WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HELP DISSIPATE.
BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THIS TO BE MORE OFF/ON AND
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITHIN ANY
SHOWER. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY NIGHT, STILL SEEING INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BREAK AS A QUICK MOVING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN ACTIVE FALL-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SEAK NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL TREK
ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH YAKUTAT MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND BRINGING STEADY RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, A STRONGER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY (~960 MB) AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON TUESDAY, STALLING THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING ON THURSDAY. THIS
STRONG LOW WILL QUICKLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED TOWARD AND THROUGH SEAK TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SEVERE
MARINE HAZARDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS IN INNER
CHANNELS SUCH AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH
GALES (34-47 KT) AND POSSIBLY STORM-FORCE WINDS (48–55 KTS) AND
COMBINED SEAS EXCEEDING 20 FEET ALONG OUTER COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY
FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WEAKENS, THOUGH LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUSTAIN RAIN SHOWERS,
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW 50S POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
SE AK IS CURRENTLY SEPARATED BY TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER STORIES.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS STARTING TO SEE RAIN AND LOWERED
CEILINGS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IS SEEING LOWER VISIBILITIES, AND VERY LOW CEILINGS, DUE
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH,
IT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS ALL
OF SE AK. CURRENTLY, BECAUSE OF THE FOG, AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND ARE SEEING IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 200 FT AND
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
HAVE ALREADY SEEN IMPROVEMENTS DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW BRINGING
A HIGHER OVERCAST CLOUD DECK. UNTIL THAT LOW MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD, AND INCREASES CLOUD COVER, FOG WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOW LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THIS
MORNING CEILINGS REMAIN BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES AOA 2500 FT. AS RAIN CONTINUES, AND THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER EAST, CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2000 FT. THERE MAY BE
SOME DROPS IN VISIBILITIES, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT OVERALL
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 SM. ONE THING TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS LLWS OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING
SHOWED 30 KT WINDS AROUND 2000 FT. THIS LLWS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: A 990MB LOW LOCATED 120NM SE OF CAPE SUCKLING
CONTINUES TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING, WITH
REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FT, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 30
KTS AT NDBC BUOYS 46082, 46083, AND 46084, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TOWARDS
CROSS SOUND. THROUGH SATURDAY, THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT
NE TOWARDS YAKUTAT BAY AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
TRANSITION TO GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND OUTER
COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN
CAPE SPENCER TO CAPE EDGECUMBE, 11 TO 15 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND, DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, WIDESPREAD 5 TO 8 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS OF ELDRED ROCK AND
SCULL ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED 20 KTS. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THIS
TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING HOURS AS A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SENDS A FRONT ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. WINDS WILL TURN
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
TRACKING INTO THE NE GULF COAST, INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH STRONGEST EXPECTED WINDS WITHIN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AROUND 10 TO 20KTS WITHIN THE N/S ORIENTED CHANNELS
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS REMAIN LARGELY 2 TO 4 FEET, LOCALLY HIGHER TO 5 FEET
WITHIN NORTHERN LYNN, PORTIONS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE NEAR SCULL
ISLAND AND BETWEEN POINT ARDENT AND FIVE FINGER LIGHT HOUSE.
FOLLOWING SUIT OF THE DIMINISHING WIND, WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
FEET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page