991
FXAK67 PAJK 191416
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
616 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, PELICAN, AND ELFIN
COVE, AND JUNEAU. ISOLATED LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST, AND GLACIER BAY, NEAR STEEP TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED AT SKAGWAY WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- MARITIME INTERESTS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE STRONG FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY,
BRINGING GALE FORCE O POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE AREAS
OF FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN
END. WHILE THIS COMES TO AN END, THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
AREA IS ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. RIGHT NOW, THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. PLACES SOUTH OF SITKA LOOK TO BE
STAY ON THE WEAKER END OF THIS SYSTEM BUT ARE LIKELY TO STILL SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
CONTINUES TO LOOK TO IMPACT PLACES NORTH OF SITKA WHILE SOUTH OF
SITKA COULD SEE JUST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN.
ONE OF THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTER COAST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE INITIALIZING COLDER THIS
MORNING, LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAYS BUT KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT SEA LEVEL A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING DUE TO THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. IF THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH THE COLD TREND, SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED.
FOR THE WIND FORECAST, REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE THE LAST 3 RUNS ALL DISPLAYING DIFFERENT TRACKS OF THE
STRENGTHENING SECONDARY FRONT, ALL AFFECTING THE STRENGTH OF
ANTICIPATED WINDS. STILL MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF ONSET. STARTING THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO CONTINUE FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST FRONT
REACHES YAKUTAT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
STRONGER FRONT AND WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS SPREADING AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ADJUSTED ONGOING WIND ADVISORIES FOR
YAKUTAT TO SEE STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 55MPH AND THE KETCHIKAN AREA
DOWN TO 40 KTS WITH BETTER DYNAMICS REMAINING IN THE N PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS AND SLOWLY
WEAKENS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND
UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS SEAK THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 1,000–2,000 FT ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND UPPER
REACHES OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND GRADIENT
RELAXES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND
INTO HAINES AND SKAGWAY COULD STILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHTER, AND THE HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OF SKAGWAY. AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS
FURTHER AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, SHOWERS
WILL LIGHTEN AND END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS SEAK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES BUILDS EAST ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA BY LATE WEEK, WITH SEAK ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
AVIATION... /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. A WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOSTLY
CLEARED THE SOUTHERN REGION, IMPROVING CLOUD DECKS FROM OVC/BKN TO
SCT/FEW. HOWEVER, THIS CLEARING HAS BROUGHT ALMOST IMMEDIATE FOG
FORMATION, AIDED BY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND CALMING WINDS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBY TO 1-2 SM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING, IMPACTING SITES FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD,
THOUGH ALSO INCLUDING SOUTHERN PARTS OF ADMIRALTY ISLAND.
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN IN A LIGHTER, SHOWERY
REGIME TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. SEVERAL SITES, MOST
NOTABLY PAJN, PAGS, AND PAHN, SEEING FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHIFT TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO SIT BETWEEN 2000-3000FT, THEN
SHIFTING DOWN TO 1500-2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, LLWS IS LIKELY NEAR PAYA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY A STOUT LOWER LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT WINDS THAT WILL PUSH
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING, FURTHER
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG SYSTEM SENDS A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM ON MONDAY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
WITH MUCH OF THE COAST SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS. A BARRIER JET ALSO LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM KAYAK ISLAND EASTWARD TO ICY BAY WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM, BRINGING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS SUSTAINED WILL BE CAPPED AROUND
45 KTS, BUT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO RACE UP THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
STRENGTHENING THE INITIAL SYSTEM AND SENDING ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE
WAS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF TO SUSTAINED
45 KTS GUSTS TO 60 KTS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY
35 TO 45 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF AND ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGING 10 TO
13 FT AT A PERIOD OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS MONDAY AND THE SECOND SYSTEM
QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 FT AT A PERIOD OF 13 TO 15
SECONDS. THIS WILL BRING ACCENTUATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 19 FT
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND 25 TO 30 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF, WITH
AREAS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE STAYING CLOSER TO 12 TO 18 FT AT MOST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS ARE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KTS, WITH LYNN
CANAL REACHING CLOSER TO 30 TO 35 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATING PERIODS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING 6 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOK
TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
GULF, REINFORCING THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND DRAWING A
DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY, AND IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS IVT FOR
AROUND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST. EXPECTING YAKUTAT TO BE THE BIG
WINNER IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH NEAR PERFECT PERPENDICULAR
FLOW, STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING LIFT POTENTIAL, AND
DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS, YAKUTAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF
6 INCHES DURING A 36 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A
2 YEAR ARI EVENT. THERE ARE LOWER PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 30% TO
SEE A 5 YEAR EVENT FOR 36 HOURS FOR THE NE GULF COAST, AND EVEN
HIGHER ARIS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER INTO YAKUTAT BAY. THESE HIGHER
ARIS LOOK TO EXTEND DOWN THE COAST AND INTO THE GLACIER BAY AREA,
WITH MAY AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES EXCEEDING 5 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS AND APPROACHING ON 10 YEAR OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD.
THEREFORE, ADDED ELFIN COVE, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTH, THE NE GULF COAST, AND GLACIER BAY TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR AREAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING
OF WATER. THAT BEING SAID, THE WIND COMPONENT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 500 FT,
AND GREATER THAN 60 MPH AT ELEVATIONS AROUND 2000 FT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THE HIGH RAIN RATES COMBINED WITH HIGHER RETURN
INTERVALS IN THE UPPER RAINFALL RANGES (HIGHER PERCENTILES, LOWER
PROBABILITY) LEADS TO AN INCREASED RISK OF ISOLATED LANDSLIDES IN
STEEP TERRAIN BASED ON HISTORICAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AKZ317-320-322-325.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323-324-327.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF/NM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...NC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page