238
FXAK67 PAJK 200012
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
412 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAVY RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT.
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-55 MPH WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
MODEST CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NE GULF COAST. LOOKING ON SATELLITE, A BULK OF THE HIGHER
IVT AND WARM MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE MOVING OVER THE NE GULF
COAST, WITH YAKUTAT BEGINNING TO SEE HEAVIER RAIN RATES OF 0.2 TO
0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. SIMILARLY, EASTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
RAMP UP IN THE INSIDE CHANNELS. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IS A
SLIGHT TREND UP IN RAIN TOTALS FOR THE YAKUTAT AND YAKUTAT BAY
AREA BASED ON 12Z RUNS. RAIN TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND THE 4.5
TO 7.0 INCH RANGE OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD, WITH AMOUNTS FURTHER AT
ELEVATION IN YAKUTAT BAY POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 10 INCHES. SLIGHTLY
TRENDED DOWN THE FORECAST IN THE JUNEAU AREA, AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN
LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA FOR LONGER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING FLOODING, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
GOING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FROM YAKUTAT TO KETCHIKAN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY, WITH STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40
MPH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN EXPANSION OF THE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREAS WERE EXCLUDED AS THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE FRONT
WILL SHEAR APART TO A DEGREE THESE AREAS WILL NOT SEE 40 MPH
GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, DOWNGRADED SKAGWAY TO AN ADVISORY, AS A BULK
OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA
INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON AREA. THEREFORE, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO LEND ITSELF TOWARD 60 MPH OR
GREATER WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONGER LAPSE RATES, DIVERGENCE ALOFT, DOWN TO -35 CELSIUS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 500 MB, AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400 J/KG
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE NE GULF COAST NORTH OF
CAPE SPENCER.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY TO MONDAY / ALOFT THE STEERING LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEING EJECTED FROM
THE GULF LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER MODERATE-
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT REACHES NEAR TO ARCTIC SHORES. RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, AS THE LARGE
BERING SEA LOW FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS BUT SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE
AREA, NOTICED A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES, ONE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVER THE RIDGE TOP, AND SECOND ONE WHICH MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. SO WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO
THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS FRIDAY - EARLY
SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND CLEARING
WEATHER OUT. AFTER THE RIDGE SLIDES BY RAIN WILL START TO PUSH
BACK IN INTO THE NE GULF THEN NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF FAIRLY ORGANIZED
FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO MONDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMED ON THE FRONT TOWARDS THE YAKUTAT POCKET
AND THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, WITH LIKELY ANOTHER
TRAILING LOW ON THE FRONT TO RUN ALONG AND SLOWING IT DOWN TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY THE HARDEST. WILL WATCH
HOW MODELS ADJUST OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. IN SHORT LONGER RANGE IS
WET, DRY BREAK FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND THEN WET INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS
TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION
/ TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING / FIRST FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
MIDDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT IN TO EARLY TUESDAY. TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR, POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL SITES YAKUTAT/SITKA, AND
POSSIBLY REACHING GUSTAVUS AND KLAWOCK HEADED INTO MIDDAY
TUESDAY.
MARINE...
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT
AND OUT ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND. BUMP CROSS SOUND TO GALE FORCE
THIS MORNING WITH EAST GALES. THE NEXT TAILING LOW TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, LOOKS TO MOVER INLAND NEAR THE NORTHERN PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO SOUTHER
STEPHEN PASSAGE AS IT FALLS PART. THINK THAT WILL WILL BE BURST OF
GALES FRIDAY MORNING OF THE CLARENCE STRAIT ARE, AND AS TEH
REMAIN OF THE FILLING LOW HEADS NORTH, I TRIED TO INCLUDE A WIND
PUSH AS IT MOVES NORTH, I TRIED TO ADD TO THE GRID TO ABOUT THE
JUNEAU ARE. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE THE WINDS WHEN THEY PICK UP.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. 25 TO 35 KT WINDS HAVE PUSHED INTO AND
THEN OUT OF PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS. THE OLD LOW IS WSW OF
KODIAK ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED SLOWLY WEAKEN THEN THE MOVE TOWARDS THE BY THE
WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE LOOK TO BE LESS THAT 25 KT AS THE OLD LOW
MOVES EAST, HELPING TO SPREAD IN SOME MORE SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE OF THE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF, REINFORCING THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND DRAWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN
PACIFIC. CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE, WITH PWS EXCEEDING 200% OF NORMAL
IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, AND IS LIKELY TO EXCEED
600 KG/MS IVT FOR AROUND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST. EXPECTING
YAKUTAT TO BE THE BIG WINNER IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH NEAR
PERFECT PERPENDICULAR FLOW, STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS
INCREASING LIFT POTENTIAL, AND DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS,
YAKUTAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES DURING A 36 HOUR PERIOD,
WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 5 YEAR ARI EVENT. THESE HIGHER
ARIS LOOK TO EXTEND DOWN THE COAST AND INTO THE GLACIER BAY AREA,
WITH MAY AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES EXCEEDING 5 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. NARROWED DOWN AREA FOR POTENTIAL
LANDSLIDES TO THE SOUTHERN FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES NORTH OF ELFIN
COVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ317-320-322-325.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323-324-327.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...NC
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