061
FXAK67 PAJK 200032
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
432 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAVY RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT.
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-55 MPH WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
MODEST CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE STRONG SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST. LOOKING ON SATELLITE, A BULK OF THE
HIGHER IVT AND WARM MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE MOVING OVER THE
NE GULF COAST, WITH YAKUTAT BEGINNING TO SEE HEAVIER RAIN RATES OF
0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. SIMILARLY, EASTERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE INSIDE CHANNELS. MAIN CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST IS A SLIGHT TREND UP IN RAIN TOTALS FOR THE YAKUTAT AND
YAKUTAT BAY AREA BASED ON 12Z RUNS. RAIN TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE
AROUND THE 4.5 TO 7.0 INCH RANGE OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD, WITH
AMOUNTS FURTHER AT ELEVATION IN YAKUTAT BAY POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 10
INCHES. SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWN THE FORECAST IN THE JUNEAU AREA, AS
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA FOR LONGER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING FLOODING, SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION.
GOING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FROM YAKUTAT TO KETCHIKAN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY, WITH STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40
MPH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN EXPANSION OF THE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREAS WERE EXCLUDED AS THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE FRONT
WILL SHEAR APART TO A DEGREE THESE AREAS WILL NOT SEE 40 MPH
GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, DOWNGRADED SKAGWAY TO AN ADVISORY, AS A BULK
OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA
INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON AREA. THEREFORE, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO LEND ITSELF TOWARD 60 MPH OR
GREATER WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONGER LAPSE RATES, DIVERGENCE ALOFT, DOWN TO -35 CELSIUS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 500 MB, AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400 J/KG
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE NE GULF COAST NORTH OF
CAPE SPENCER.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS AND SLOWLY
WEAKENS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND
UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS SEAK THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 1,000–2,000 FT ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND UPPER
REACHES OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND GRADIENT
RELAXES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND
INTO HAINES AND SKAGWAY COULD STILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHTER, AND THE HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OF SKAGWAY. AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS
FURTHER AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, SHOWERS
WILL LIGHTEN AND END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS SEAK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES BUILDS EAST ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA BY LATE WEEK, WITH SEAK ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
AVIATION
/ TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING / FIRST FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
MIDDAY.
SECOND FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE EAST AND PAST THE YAKUTAT AREA MID
MORNING TO AFTERNOON. EXPECT A STRONG BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND A QUICK SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION AS
IT PASSES. RIGHT NOW ESTIMATE FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN TO EARLY TUESDAY. TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR,
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL SITES YAKUTAT/SITKA, AND
POSSIBLY REACHING GUSTAVUS AND KLAWOCK AND MANY OF THE OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
EVENIND AND THEN UP TO GALES BY MORNING. THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS ARE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KTS, WITH LYNN
CANAL REACHING CLOSER TO 30 TO 35 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATING PERIODS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING 6 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOK
TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.WILL BE ABLE TO FINE THE WINDS
WHEN THEY PICK UP.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM ON
MONDAY EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE WITH MUCH OF THE COAST SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. A BARRIER JET ALSO LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM KAYAK ISLAND EASTWARD TO ICY BAY WITH
THIS FIRST SYSTEM, BRINGING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS SUSTAINED WILL BE
CAPPED AROUND 45 KTS, BUT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RACE UP THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING THE INITIAL SYSTEM AND SENDING ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF TO SUSTAINED 45 KTS GUSTS TO 60
KTS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY 35 TO 45 KT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGING 10 TO 13 FT AT A PERIOD
OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS MONDAY AND THE SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 FT AT A PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. THIS
WILL BRING ACCENTUATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 19 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND 25 TO 30 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF, WITH AREAS NEAR DIXON
ENTRANCE STAYING CLOSER TO 12 TO 18 FT AT MOST.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY TO MONDAY / ALOFT THE STEERING LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEING EJECTED FROM
THE GULF LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER MODERATE-
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT REACHES NEAR TO ARCTIC SHORES. RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, AS THE LARGE
BERING SEA LOW FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS BUT SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE
AREA, NOTICED A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES, ONE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVER THE RIDGE TOP, AND SECOND ONE WHICH MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. SO WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO
THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS FRIDAY - EARLY
SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND CLEARING
WEATHER OUT. AFTER THE RIDGE SLIDES BY RAIN WILL START TO PUSH
BACK IN INTO THE NE GULF THEN NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF FAIRLY ORGANIZED
FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO MONDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMED ON THE FRONT TOWARDS THE YAKUTAT POCKET
AND THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, WITH LIKELY ANOTHER
TRAILING LOW ON THE FRONT TO RUN ALONG AND SLOWING IT DOWN TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY THE HARDEST. WILL WATCH
HOW MODELS ADJUST OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. IN SHORT LONGER RANGE IS
WET, DRY BREAK FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND THEN WET INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS
TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF, REINFORCING THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND DRAWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN
PACIFIC. CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE, WITH PWS EXCEEDING 200% OF NORMAL
IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, AND IS LIKELY TO EXCEED
600 KG/MS IVT FOR AROUND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST. EXPECTING
YAKUTAT TO BE THE BIG WINNER IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH NEAR
PERFECT PERPENDICULAR FLOW, STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS
INCREASING LIFT POTENTIAL, AND DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS,
YAKUTAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES DURING A 36 HOUR PERIOD,
WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 5 YEAR ARI EVENT. THESE HIGHER
ARIS LOOK TO EXTEND DOWN THE COAST AND INTO THE GLACIER BAY AREA,
WITH MAY AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES EXCEEDING 5 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. NARROWED DOWN AREA FOR POTENTIAL
LANDSLIDES TO THE SOUTHERN FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES NORTH OF ELFIN
COVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ317-320-322-325.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323-324-327.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...NC
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