134
FXAK67 PAJK 200554
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
954 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION AND 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SENDS A FRONT EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE. MADE TIMING CHANGES TO MARINE AND WIND HAZARDS TO
BETTER MATCH CURRENT GUIDANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAVY RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT.
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-55 MPH WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
MODEST CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST. LOOKING ON SATELLITE,
A BULK OF THE HIGHER IVT AND WARM MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE
MOVING OVER THE NE GULF COAST, WITH YAKUTAT BEGINNING TO SEE
HEAVIER RAIN RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. SIMILARLY,
EASTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE INSIDE CHANNELS.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IS A SLIGHT TREND UP IN RAIN TOTALS
FOR THE YAKUTAT AND YAKUTAT BAY AREA BASED ON 12Z RUNS. RAIN
TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND THE 4.5 TO 7.0 INCH RANGE OVER A 36
HOUR PERIOD, WITH AMOUNTS FURTHER AT ELEVATION IN YAKUTAT BAY
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 10 INCHES. SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWN THE FORECAST
IN THE JUNEAU AREA, AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA FOR LONGER. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING FLOODING,
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
GOING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FROM YAKUTAT TO KETCHIKAN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY, WITH STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40
MPH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN EXPANSION OF THE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREAS WERE EXCLUDED AS THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE FRONT
WILL SHEAR APART TO A DEGREE THESE AREAS WILL NOT SEE 40 MPH
GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, DOWNGRADED SKAGWAY TO AN ADVISORY, AS A BULK
OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA
INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON AREA. THEREFORE, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO LEND ITSELF TOWARD 60 MPH OR
GREATER WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONGER LAPSE RATES, DIVERGENCE ALOFT, DOWN TO -35 CELSIUS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 500 MB, AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400 J/KG
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE NE GULF COAST NORTH OF
CAPE SPENCER.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT
TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE STACKED BUT
WEAKENING LOW LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
HAINES HIGHWAY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SHIFTING
EAST AND SETTLING OVER SEAK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGHWAY INTO LYNN CANAL. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT, A STRONG SYSTEM
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR ICY STRAIT AND NORTHWARD WITH THE
INITIAL FRONT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS (CIGS 1500-2500 FT, VSBY 4-6 SM) WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. A SECONDARY FRONT REACHING THE OUTER PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE FREQUENT DROPS TO IFR DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FROM NW TO SE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING, WITH PAYA
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY, BKN-OVC 2500-3000 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS PEAK THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL REGIONS (15–25 KT
SUSTAINED, GUSTS 35-40 KT) BEFORE WEAKENING INLAND. A LOWER-LEVEL
JET (45-55 KT AT 2000 FT) SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD LLWS AND TURBULENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
EVENING AND THEN UP TO GALES BY MORNING. THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS ARE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KTS, WITH LYNN
CANAL REACHING CLOSER TO 30 TO 35 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATING PERIODS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING 6 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOK
TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.WILL BE ABLE TO FINE THE WINDS
WHEN THEY PICK UP.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM ON
MONDAY EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE WITH MUCH OF THE COAST SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. A BARRIER JET ALSO LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM KAYAK ISLAND EASTWARD TO ICY BAY WITH
THIS FIRST SYSTEM, BRINGING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS SUSTAINED WILL BE
CAPPED AROUND 45 KTS, BUT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RACE UP THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING THE INITIAL SYSTEM AND SENDING ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF TO SUSTAINED 45 KTS GUSTS TO 60
KTS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY 35 TO 45 KT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGING 10 TO 13 FT AT A PERIOD
OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS MONDAY AND THE SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 FT AT A PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. THIS
WILL BRING ACCENTUATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 19 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND 25 TO 30 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF, WITH AREAS NEAR DIXON
ENTRANCE STAYING CLOSER TO 12 TO 18 FT AT MOST.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF, REINFORCING THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND DRAWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN
PACIFIC. CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE, WITH PWS EXCEEDING 200% OF NORMAL
IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, AND IS LIKELY TO EXCEED
600 KG/MS IVT FOR AROUND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST. EXPECTING
YAKUTAT TO BE THE BIG WINNER IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH NEAR
PERFECT PERPENDICULAR FLOW, STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS
INCREASING LIFT POTENTIAL, AND DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS,
YAKUTAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES DURING A 36 HOUR PERIOD,
WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 5 YEAR ARI EVENT. THESE HIGHER
ARIS LOOK TO EXTEND DOWN THE COAST AND INTO THE GLACIER BAY AREA,
WITH MAY AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES EXCEEDING 5 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. NARROWED DOWN AREA FOR POTENTIAL
LANDSLIDES TO THE SOUTHERN FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES NORTH OF ELFIN
COVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ317-320-322-325.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318-319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323-324-327.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...NC
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