665
FXAK67 PAJK 201850
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1050 AM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2026
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
MAIN UPDATES TO THIS MORNING'S FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME.
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ALONG BARANOF ISLAND.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT, HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE OUTER COASTLINE FROM THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE DOWN ALONG WESTERN
CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLAND, WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED CELLS
LOOKING TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER IT PASSES, HOWEVER
THE LOCATION WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL
OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN AND AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE BRINGING A SECOND PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN RATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS, WITH TIMES OF HEAVIEST
RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SITES IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE LLWS, AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT, AS THIS NEXT
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS SHEAR WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AROUND THIS SAME TIME. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
HAVE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 TO 50 KTS. SIMILARLY, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEAR THESE
AREAS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTENING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED, VIA SATELLITE, NEAR SITKA ALLOWING FOR
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ADDED INTO THE TAFS FOR ONLY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST REMAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO
PUSH INLAND REMAIN LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THE SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, WIND
SPEEDS AND RAIN RATES WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT,
ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP VARIABLE CONDITIONS, BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT. BRIEF BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH TIMES OF SCATTERED TO CLEAR
SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 7 AM
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-60 MPH REPORTED OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY, AND JUNEAU. STRONG WIND
GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SKAGWAY.
- MARINERS, A SHARP WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
OUR FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO PART OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, SKAGWAY WAS
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND OVERNIGHT AS WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED
CRITERIA. ALSO INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING BEING SEEN ACROSS THE GLACIER BAY
AND FAIRWEATHER AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO EXPANDED FARTHER INLAND AS
WELL DUE TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT TO LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE WEST OF JUNEAU.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AS THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS TRACKS INLAND OF THE NE GULF
COAST. STRONGEST WINDS SO FAR THIS MORNING OCCURRING NEAR YAKUTAT,
SKAGWAY, AND JUNEAU WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
SPEEDS NEAR 55 TO 65 MPH. BASED ON SATELLITE AND ONGOING OBS,
UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED ROUND OF HIGH WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UP TO 65 MPH. THE WIND
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAINS LARGE ONLY TRACK, WITH MOST
ADJUSTMENTS RELATED TO END TIMINGS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT PROGRESSING A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM
W TO E STARTING WITH YAKUTAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
STILL THINKING WINDS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER AT HAINES AND
SKAGWAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO KEPT A LINGERING ADVISORY
THROUGH THEN WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE STACKED BUT WEAKENING LOW LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SHOULD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINIMAL. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA SHIFTING EAST AND SETTLING OVER SEAK FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN
HIGHWAY INTO LYNN CANAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
MARINE
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
OUTER WATERS: STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE NE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW WIND SWATH OF
SUSTAINED GALES 35 TO 45 KTS SW-LY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
AND SE-LY ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT ALEXANDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE
SUCKLING. IN TANDEM, SATELLITE DERIVED WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATING WAVE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGE AREA OF 15 TO 18 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF PROGRESSING NE TOWARDS THE GULF, EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE
BUILDING REACHING 20 TO 25 FT FROM YAKUTAT BAY DOWN TO POINT
EDGECUMBE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO PREDOMINATE W-SW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LASTLY, THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE N GULF COAST FROM YAKUTAT SOUTHWARD TO CAPE EDGECUMBE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, ANTICIPATE
ERRATIC WINDS AND PERIODS OF LIMITED VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS A BROAD
AREA MOVES E FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVER THE N GULF, WITH
BROAD SW- LY WINDS 15 TO 25KTS EXPECTED AND SEAS SUBSIDING 8 TO 11
FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSIDE WATERS: WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
THE MORNING, WITH ONGOING OBSERVATIONS OF GALES OF 35 KTS IN LYNN
CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND POINT GARDNER. INNER CHANNEL MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH CONTINUATION OF SUSTAINED SMALL
CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN THE INNER CHANNELS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 4 TO 8 FEET
WITH HIGHEST WITHIN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND BY TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIKELIEST HOLD OUT ON ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE
STEPHENS PASSAGE AND LYNN CANAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS
WINDS LAX FROM PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N/S CHANNELS.
HYDROLOGY.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
RATES CONTINUING TO REMAIN AROUND 0.2-0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING AS
WELL. WITH THE CONTINUED RAIN, RIVERS HAVE STARTED TO RESPOND BUT
SO FAR NONE ARE TOO CONCERNING. FARTHER SOUTH, THE RAIN HAS BEEN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE SO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH. AS THE RAIN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, IT WILL START TO EXIT THE AREA FASTER AND
HELP TO LIMIT RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO CLOSER TO 1 INCH, ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES SOUTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ317-320-322-325.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319-330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ320>325-327.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...EAB/CONTINO
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...SF
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