642
FXAK67 PAJK 210014
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-60 MPH REPORTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGH.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES.
- MARINERS, A SHARP WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO WEST
TO FINISH TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
MAINLY CLOSER TO DOWNWIND TERRAIN.
- ONSHORE FLOW LASTING UNTIL THURSDAY WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND BRING A DRIER
TREND GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ALONGSIDE ELEVATED WINDS AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH. JUST AS
THIS FRONT PASSES, THE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AND THE
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS
HOWEVER, WHILE MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DROP IN
WINDS MUCH SOONER.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE NE GULF
COAST DOWN TO POW ISLAND, LARGELY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THEY HIT
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND ALONG BARANOF
ISLAND. MUCH OF THESE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE INLAND, WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF
MOVING FURTHER INLAND, HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AT TIMES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL AFFECT OTHER
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE EVEN IF LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS MORE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE. AS WE GET INTO THE END OF
THE DAY THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND START TO BRING
AN END TO THIS MORE WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE HAD.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE STACKED BUT WEAKENING LOW LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
HAINES HIGHWAY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SHIFTING EAST
AND SETTLING OVER SEAK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGHWAY INTO LYNN CANAL. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY WINDS AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEGUN TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES,
PREDOMINATELY MVFR, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM. WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH INCREASING CEILINGS TO ABOVE 3000 FT. ONGOING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP VARIABLE CONDITIONS, BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT. BRIEF BREAKS WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH TIMES OF SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS, OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN STRONG AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: SOUTHERLY WIND OF 35 TO 40 THROUGH MUCH OF THE INNER
CHANNELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FALLING OFF.
SOME OF THE GUSTS IN THE 50S AND NEAR 60S FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING UNTIL THE MAIN WIND BAND ENDS. WINDS WILL PERSIST TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN CHANNELS THIS EVENING.
OUTER WATERS: THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF OF THE FRONT WERE 35
TO 40 EARLIER TODAY, BUT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY STRONG AND
GUSTY HAVE HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN PORTION MAY NEED WATCH FOR ISOLATE THUNDER, AS AN
AIRMASS THAT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION APPROACHES THE COASTLINE THAT COULD
TRIGGER AN RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A GOOD SOUTHWEST-WEST SWELL
KEEPING TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF ELEVATED INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ322-323.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ324>327-329.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-034-036-641-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-033-035-053-642>644-
651-652-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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