719
FXAK67 PAJK 210631 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPDATE
THE GALE FORCE FRONT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST
3 HOURS, AND IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS EXIT TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THE
PAST HOUR ON THE MARINE SITES WAS TREE POINT WELL TO THE EAST OF
KETCHIKAN, AND THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 33 KT GUSTS. WE ARE LEAVING
THE KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE AND EAST AREAS IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW,
BUT THAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERIODIC GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED (EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS) FOR THE MOST PART THE
NEXT 4 HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS. 05/GARMON
AVIATION UPDATE
CURRENTLY NOTING MOSTLY MVFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THIS EVENING (AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION WORKING SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT). WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO
NEAR 35 KTS PERIODICALLY OUT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE AND MISTY FJORDS AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
CEILINGS GO MVFR AND UP TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. WE STILL HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE ALASKA, NORTH OF SITKA THROUGH THE FAIRWEATHER
AREA TO NEAR YAKUTAT. NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE COVERAGE-WISE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME PERIODIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THESE AREAS. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY MVFR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z WITH
PERIODIC PASSING SHOWERS. 05/GARMON
MARINE UPDATE
THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CLARENCE STRAIT
AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AND ACROSS DIXON
ENTRANCE. WE HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS WITH SOME LINGERING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WE KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FOR
THE COASTLA WATERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW, MAINLY DUE TO SEAS 10 TO 15 FT LINGERING.
OTHERWISE, LOOKING WEST WE NOTE THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 60N/150W THAT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-60 MPH REPORTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGH.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES.
- MARINERS, A SHARP WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO WEST
TO FINISH TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
MAINLY CLOSER TO DOWNWIND TERRAIN.
- ONSHORE FLOW LASTING UNTIL THURSDAY WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND BRING A DRIER
TREND GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ALONGSIDE ELEVATED WINDS AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH. JUST AS
THIS FRONT PASSES, THE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AND THE
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS
HOWEVER, WHILE MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DROP IN
WINDS MUCH SOONER.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE NE GULF
COAST DOWN TO POW ISLAND, LARGELY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THEY HIT
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND ALONG BARANOF
ISLAND. MUCH OF THESE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE INLAND, WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF
MOVING FURTHER INLAND, HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AT TIMES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL AFFECT OTHER
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE EVEN IF LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS MORE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE. AS WE GET INTO THE END OF
THE DAY THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND START TO BRING
AN END TO THIS MORE WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE HAD.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BENIGN DAYS ARE AHEAD
COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK OF STRONG SYSTEMS FOR THE PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY SEES THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF FINALLY
FILL COMPLETELY, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FULLY,
ONLY EXPECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION TO BE CLIPPED BY SOME
MOISTURE SATURDAY GOING INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO START OUT WITH MOSTLY A COOL TREND, WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
COULD SEE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OUT OF LYNN CANAL, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW STRENGTH AND HAS LEAD TO LESS WINDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY WINDS AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEGUN TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES,
PREDOMINATELY MVFR, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM. WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH INCREASING CEILINGS TO ABOVE 3000 FT. ONGOING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP VARIABLE CONDITIONS, BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT. BRIEF BREAKS WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH TIMES OF SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS, OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN STRONG AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MARINE...
INNER CHANNELS: SOUTHERLY WIND OF 35 TO 40 THROUGH MUCH OF THE INNER
CHANNELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FALLING OFF.
SOME OF THE GUSTS IN THE 50S AND NEAR 60S FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING UNTIL THE MAIN WIND BAND ENDS. WINDS WILL PERSIST TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN CHANNELS THIS EVENING.
OUTER WATERS: THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF OF THE FRONT WERE 35
TO 40 EARLIER TODAY, BUT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY STRONG AND
GUSTY HAVE HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN PORTION MAY NEED WATCH FOR ISOLATE THUNDER, AS AN
AIRMASS THAT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION APPROACHES THE COASTLINE THAT COULD
TRIGGER AN RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A GOOD SOUTHWEST-WEST SWELL
KEEPING TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF ELEVATED INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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