058
FXAK67 PAJK 211835 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION, MARINE, AND SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN TO LARGELY NARROW IN ON THE
AREA ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE SPENCER DOWN TO CAPE
DECISION. MOST OF THESE ARE INTENSIFYING AS THEY HIT THE TERRAIN
ON CHICHAGOF ISLAND AND BARANOF ISLAND, AND LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY FALL APART AS THEY
MOVE INLAND.
AVIATION UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY BRINGING DOWN BOTH VIS
AND CIGS TO MVFR OR LOWER. THERE REMAINS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL, THOUGH FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE DIRECTLY IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THOSE THAT HAVE MANAGED TO
FORM PRIMARILY HAVE BEEN POPPING UP FROM THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF CAPE EDGECUMBE ALONG THE OUTER COAST. FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, KETCHIKAN HAS FOUND THEMSELVES IN A LULL
WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FORMING BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING.
FOR MORE ON OTHER CHANGING FORECAST TRENDS SEE THE SHORT TERM AND
MARINE SECTIONS BELOW.
MARINE UPDATE
WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE NOT DISSIPATED
AS QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS INITIALLY EXPECTED, SO THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECTS HIGHER WINDS IN LYNN CANAL,
STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND CROSS SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER
WHICH, THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS AT GRAVE POINT, MIDWAY
ISLAND, AND FIVE FINGERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SITTING BETWEEN 15
AND 20KTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. GUSTS IN CROSS SOUND HAVE REACHED UP TO 40KTS,
HAVE SINCE REDUCED DOWN TO 15KTS, BUT COULD REACH UP TOWARDS 40KTS
AGAIN AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW LASTING WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND BRING A DRIER
TREND GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
- CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TREND TO START OUT THE WEEKEND,
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S, AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
STARTING OUT VERY DIFFERENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS IN THE NW GULF NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH IS BRINGING
THE AREA ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AS THEY HAVE MOVED ONSHORE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS
NOTICEABLE CLEARING BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SHOWER COVERAGE IS MORE LIMITED. FARTHER
NORTH, SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE INNER
CHANNELS ALLOWING FOR LESS BREAKS. EVEN WITH THIS CLOUD DECK SET
UP, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALLOWING SOME
REPRIEVE BETWEEN THE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHILE LOWS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
COLD. ONE CONCERN GOING INTO THIS EVENING THOUGH WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND WEAKER WINDS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE IDEA OF TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO HIGH THIRTIES STARTING TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY GETTING COLDER GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE. BU THE TIME WE
GET TO SATURDAY, WE COULD BE SEEING A COLD MORNING IN STORE FOR A
LOT OF PLACES WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY AROUND FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, LOWS FALL TO THE MID
THIRTIES POTENTIALLY.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BENIGN DAYS ARE AHEAD COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK OF STRONG SYSTEMS
FOR THE PANHANDLE. FRIDAY SEES THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF FINALLY FILL COMPLETELY, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FULLY, ONLY EXPECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTION TO BE CLIPPED BY SOME MOISTURE SATURDAY GOING INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO START OUT WITH MOSTLY A COOL TREND, WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
COULD SEE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OUT OF LYNN CANAL, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW STRENGTH AND HAS LEAD TO LESS WINDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
/THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/
REMNANTS OF STRONG FRONT FORM YESTERDAY CONTINUE TO DEPART SE OUT
OF THE AOR, LEAVING PREDOMINATE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE
WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 4000FT AND UNRESTRICTED VISBYS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, MOVING INTO A SHOWERY REGIME WITH HIT OR MISS RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEAK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
LOW IN THE NE GULF TRANSITS SE-WARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS REGIME, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIKELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 TO 4SM AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY PASSING
SHOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
COULD STILL SEE THE OCCASIONAL STRIKE ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM
YAKUTAT TO SITKA, ALTHOUGH HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT AS DENSE
IN COVERAGE OR INTENSITY AS YESTERDAY. NO LLWS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
DAY, OUTSIDE OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL TERMINAL WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AND
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR WINDS.
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST PLACES GETTING DOWN TO 20 KT OR LESS
WITH A FEW REPORTING LESS THAN 10 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL AND GULF WATERS WILL BE
THE ELEVATED SEAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WSW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SEAS BEFORE THE
SWELL INFLUENCE DECREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SEE WAVE HEIGHTS
START TO DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 10
TO 14 FT FOR TODAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING
HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MOST PLACES DOWN TO 15 KT OR
LESS. A FEW PLACES STILL ARE HOLDING OUT WITH SOME 20 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS THAT MIGHT PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INTERIOR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF A LOW PRESSURE DOES PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
UPDATE...STJ
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
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