860
FXAK67 PAJK 220628 AAB
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1028 PM AKDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPDATE INCLUDING NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION
JUST A GENERAL FRESHENING UP OF FORECAST WORDING THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. ELDRED ROCK IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL STICKING TO A SOLID 20 KTS THIS EVENING, AND THAT WILL
LIKELY HANG ON INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, KEEPING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES GOING ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS 9 TO
11 FEET IN 15-20 SE TO SWLY FLOW. THE WEAK LOW BROADLY CENTERED BY
RADAR FIX NEAR 58.8N AND 144.3W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK. 05/GARMON
AVIATION UPDATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE. WE COULD GET SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT FROM THESE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. OVERALL, A MOSTLY MVFR FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW EXPECTED, MAINLY IN CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT
AGL IN A MOSTLY BROKEN DECK, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
WITH VISIBILITIES 2-4 STATUTE MILES. THE OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 05/GARMON
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
YUKON, WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IN TURN WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, INCLUDING TAKU INLET, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE WHICH COULD PREVENT
WINDS GETTING ANY STRONGER. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK OUTFLOW, LOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP. THIS WILL BRING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BECOMING MORE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO HIGH 20S OVERNIGHT. AT THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO FORECASTED
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM AKDT WED OCT 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW LASTING WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND BRING A DRIER
TREND GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
- CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TREND TO START OUT THE WEEKEND, WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S.
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AS A LOW CONTINUES TO SIT IN THE NORTHERN GULF, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION MEANING MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED AND NOT BRINGING ANY PERSISTENT RAINFALL TO
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THEY PASS. AS THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH ON AND OFF RATES OF UP TO 0.10 IN/HR AND SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS AS HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. WHILE THERE IS SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL IN THESE SHOWERS, LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ONLY BEING ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
OVERALL, SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DETERIORATES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE GROWS FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON, WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM N TO S
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN CHANGE TO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO A DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND FURTHER INLAND WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK HITTING THE LOW 30S TO EVEN
THE HIGH 20S FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE MID TO HIGH 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S, TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY/
WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE PROVEN
CAPABLE OF BRINGING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY
HIT OR MISS, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING DROPS IN VIS AND SOME
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED,
BUT THESE CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND CAPE EDGECUMBE.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP MORE CONSISTENTLY
BELOW 3000 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING LATER THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS ON
THE HORIZON. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER STORY.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN, MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND REACHING UP
TO 20KTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE OBSERVED WIND TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW
FALLS APART. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE
GULF, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO E/NE IN DIRECTION BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 15KTS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM 10FT TO BELOW 8FT
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INNER CHANNELS: WIND ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AFTER A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY A SHOWERY,
GUSTY REGIME. THE WIND DID NOT DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND LYNN CANAL. BOTH CHANNELS WILL
LIKELY SEE FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
SETTLE TO GENTLE BREEZES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THURSDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTH AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CANADA AND THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES SOUTH. WIND ON FRIDAY IS
LIKELY TO BE GENTLE AND NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION BEFORE BUILDING TO
MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...AGP
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