342
FXAK67 PAJK 221326
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
526 AM AKDT THU OCT 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY GOING INTO THE
WEEKENDS.
- CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TREND TO START OUT THE WEEKEND, WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF WEAKENS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
THE INTERIOR TODAY HELPING TO LEAD TO A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTH STARTING TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TOMORROW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S FOR THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BUT DECREASING
AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT, CURRENTLY THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO GET INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. BY SATURDAY,
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLE WILL BE NEAR 0 AND WE ARE LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR CLOUD COVER. BY SUNDAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS.
WITH THIS ORIENTATION, EAST/WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED FOR SEEING INCREASED WINDS. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS IN
THE JUNEAU AREA; FORECAST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE WIND DEVELOPMENT WITH CROSS BARRIER
FLOW, A CRITICAL LAYER, AND A TEMPERATURE INVERSION STRUGGLING TO
LINE UP AT THE SAME TIME.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF. LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS,
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON, WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS.
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, INCLUDING TAKU INLET, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS
TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE WHICH COULD PREVENT WINDS GETTING ANY
STRONGER. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK OUTFLOW, LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP. THIS WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
30S WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE LOWS
IN THE MID TO HIGH 20S OVERNIGHT. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO FORECASTED ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/
MIXED BAG OF MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2000-5000FT AND VISBYS 4 TO 6SM
WITHIN SHOWERS. PESKY LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF,
SENDING WAVES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY, PREDOMINANT VFR TO MVFR PREVAILS WITH
CEILINGS 2000 TO 5000FT, OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM
WITHIN ANY PASSING HEAVIER SHOWER, HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z
THIS EVENING AS LOW MOVES INTO THE N PACIFIC AND A SHIFT TO
GENERAL OFFSHORE PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. DURING THAT TRANSITIONARY
PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING, WITH REMNANT SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND
EXPECTED CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, LIKELIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TERMINALS,
ALBEIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS REMAINS LARGELY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING, EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KT. NO MAJOR LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING AS A LOW PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS,
A NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THIS INCREASE, OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GAPS IN TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP STRONGER WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS MOST GAPS COULD SEE 20
KT SUSTAINED WINDS BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS.
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY AND SHOULD GET DOWN TO BELOW 8 FT
BY TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONDITIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY QUIET FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS REPORTING
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW PLACES SITTING AROUND 20 KT FOR ELDRED ROCK AND TAKU INLET.
THROUGH TODAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BEFORE WE SEE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS START TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW IN THE GULF REMAINS BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH WINDS TO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TOMORROW.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND A STRONG LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASED OUTFLOW WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
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