200
FXPQ60 PGUM 012133
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
733 AM CHST TUE APR 2 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE-WINDS WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
NO CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTED AN AREA OF INCREASED PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE MARIANAS. SOUNDING DATA FROM LAST NIGHT DID SHOW PWI
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW THIS AND ALSO INDICATE THAT
THE PWI SHOULD DECREASE AND REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA KEEPING SHOWERS
AT MINIMUM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SHOWS
THE AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY. A CIRCULATION PASSING
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MARINE
OBSERVATIONS FROM RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOYS SHOW SEAS HEIGHTS BETWEEN
5 TO 6 FEET. MODELS SHOW SEAS INCREASING BRIEFLY TO BETWEEN 6 AND
7 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN EAST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AND A NORTH SWELL
WILL ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE THE SHOWERS THAT PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS THE LAST FEW DAYS
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAUSING THE
VEGETATION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
AND A WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD NOT SPREAD. THIS BEING SAID...BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS TO NEAR CHUUK AND JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI. SPOTTY CONVECTION IS
SEEN FARTHER EAST NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH OF MAJURO. LITTLE CHANGE
MADE TO INHERITED FORECASTS AS THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DRIER WEATHER AT MAJURO
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND SPREAD WESTWARD TO POHNPEI AND
CHUUK BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER NEAR
KOSRAE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITHIN THE CONVERGING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS KOSRAE AND ARE NO LONGER
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. HOWEVER, TRADE WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES
ARE STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EASTERN
EXPOSURES AT KOSRAE. SURF WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND COULD FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT PALAU THIS MORNING BUT SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARD YAP FROM THE EAST. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS
SEEN IN THE 12Z ASCAT NEAR 4N141E AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP NEARLY
STATIONARY A FEW MORE DAYS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REACH YAP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO KOROR ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER THEN
AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT
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