618
FXPQ60 PGUM 030935
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
610 PM CHST WED APR 3 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS
WITHIN THE MARIANAS WATERS, JUST TRAILS OF CLOUDS COMING OFF THE
ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES EAST-NORTHEAST WIND OF 11 TO
18 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR. THE BUOYS
REVEAL COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET COMPOSED OF A NORTH SWELL, AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL, AND WIND WAVES OF AROUND 3 FEET.
DISCUSSION
THE MARIANAS REMAIN ANCHORED IN A RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME.
THERE IS A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AT BEST, THIS WILL SCRAPE GUAM WITH A
MINOR INCREASE IN SHOWERS, AND COULD DO LITTLE TO NOTHING FOR THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS.
THE GFS WANTS TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUDS AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES,
KEEPING THE REST OF NEXT WEEK MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE ECMWF-HIRES CLEARS
THEM OUT. FOR NOW, WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE CLEARER SOLUTION, AS
RECENT WEATHER HAS BEEN QUITE DRY AND SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES, THEY
WILL STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. THEY WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET,
THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET AROUND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MARCH WAS A QUITE DRY MONTH FOR THE MARIANAS, WITH ONLY 0.81 INCHES
OF RAIN AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN GUAM. THE KBDI IS UP TO 624 NOW AND
WILL LIKELY NOT BE LOOKING BACK ANYTIME SOON. THE PROBLEM WILL ARISE
WHEN WINDS KICK UP A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR EVEN A RED FLAG WARNING ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNSETTLED ACROSS THIS REGION. A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK, POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE STATES. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY FROM OVER KOSRAE STATE ACROSS TARAWA TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS
OVER MAJURO AND THE NORTHERN RMI, WHILE PATCHY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE FOR SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND AREAS OF SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, PARTICULARLY FOR CHUUK. MODELS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PREVAILING TRADE WIND
PATTERN RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES AT KOSRAE HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
WESTERN MICRONESIA YAP AND KOROR
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN PALAU THROUGH A
WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 5N142E THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CHUUK STATE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHWEST FROM THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR TO ABOUT 12N135E. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. GFS MODEL INDICATES THE CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE COMING DAYS, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE
UNSETTLED FOR YAP AND PALAU WHILE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND
CIRCULATION REMAIN NEARBY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
STANKO/SIMPSON
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