506
FXPQ60 PGUM 050625
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
425 PM CHST FRI APR 5 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM,
AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE UP NORTH HAVE WORKED ABOUT
AS FAR SOUTH AS SAIPAN. IN BETWEEN, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
MARIANAS WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME, EXCEPT THAT DRYING IS NOW
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SUNDAY. DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH
OF THE REGION THAT HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWERS, IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS SHARP DRYING ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY INDEED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRE WEATHER
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GUAM WILL ONLY GET DRIER IN THE DAYS
AHEAD, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACK OFF, REDUCING THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL A LITTLE. NEVERTHELESS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN A FEW DAYS AS THE KBDI RISES THROUGH THE 600S.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
A DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 4N167E. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING SOME OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. MAJURO REMAINS
JUST NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. THE DISTURBANCE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS AND SURF WILL BE ELEVATED AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT MAJURO.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL
EXPOSED CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AT 3N138E, TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER. ALSO, A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AT 10N147E.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR THE TROUGH AND OVER NORTHERN CHUUK
STATE.
THE CIRCULATION AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. AREAS
OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR CHUUK; TRAILING CONVERGENCE AND PATCHY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTHERN CHUUK STATE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND MORE SHOWERS COULD
ARRIVE AT CHUUK FROM THE EAST NEXT WEEK. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA LATER NEXT WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON
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