505
FXPQ60 PGUM 052058
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
658 AM CHST SAT APR 6 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH GUAM WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STAYING BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE SKIRTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GUAM'S WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION STEMS FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. THE SHEAR
LINE THAT HAD DIPPED TO NEAR SAIPAN HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
DISCUSSION
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE IN WEST MICRONESIA DRIFTS WEST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER
GUAM INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE CNMI WILL SEE MORE SUN THROUGH THE
DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PATTERN REDEVELOPING FOR THE NEW
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE LARGELY STAYING SOUTH OF 10N.
MARINE
BUOYS AND ALTIMETRY SHOW THAT SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 6 AND 7
FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL, EVENTUALLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 FEET
BY TUESDAY. SIMILARLY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND WETTING RAINS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GUAM
HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER, BUT A DRY WEEK AHEAD WILL
ALLOW CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS. FORTUNATELY, WEAKER WINDS WILL
LESSEN THE CHANCES OF FAST-SPREADING WILDFIRES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, AND CHUUK THRU TONIGHT.
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD FROM NEAR
MINAMI TORI SHIMA THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL MUCH
DRIER FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING TONIGHT. THESE TRADES SHOULD DISPLACE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING A VERY DRY TRADE REGIME TO SPREAD
WESTWARD FROM MAJURO. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MINIMAL SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO AND KOSRAE UNTIL MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, AND
POHNPEI AND CHUUK FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST
OF THE DATE LINE NEAR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, NORTHEAST TRADES WILL VEER
TOWARD THE EAST. THIS COULD CAUSE THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO
REBOUND NORTHWARD, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF WET WEATHER FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
THE ANTICIPATED TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL LEAD TO RISING SWELL AND SURF
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE
MARINE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR MAJURO BY TONIGHT,
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY CHUUK BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURF ON KOSRAE COULD ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
A BROAD CIRCULATION REMAINS SOUTH OF FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA NEAR
4N138E THIS MORNING. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS REACHING NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD FROM THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOROR AND YAP THRU TONIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGHS HAVE
PASSED WEST OF KOROR ON SUNDAY, MODEST CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THEIR WAKE WILL PROLONG INSTABILITY THRU MONDAY. TOWARD MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, MUCH DRIER TRADE WINDS FROM NEAR CHUUK AND EASTERN MICRONESIA
SHOULD GRADUALLY FILTER WESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
W. AYDLETT/CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page