831
FXPQ60 PGUM 060546
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
346 PM CHST SAT APR 6 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND TINIAN AND
SAIPAN, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEARING AND ANY SHOWERS ARE MOVING
WEST AWAY FROM ROTA AND GUAM. MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER
THE MARIANAS WATERS, AND SEAS ARE INDICATED AT 5 TO 6 FEET AT THE
GUAM BUOYS.
DISCUSSION
A VERY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE MARIANAS FOR A FEW
DAYS, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING TODAY, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TRADES DECREASE FROM MODERATE TO GENTLE. THE RIP
RISK WILL STAY MODERATE, BUT BARELY BY MONDAY, ALONG EAST FACING
REEFS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING WILL RESUME AFTER THE RAIN OF THIS MORNING, BUT RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
THE DANGER OF WILD FIRES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FOUND
EASTWARD ACROSS KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR CHUUK. THE 00Z ASCAT PASS
STILL SHOWS A SURGE OF TRADE WINDS NEAR THE DATE LINE, BUT OTHERWISE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. GFS
HAS BACKED OFF THE WINDS A BIT IN THE NEAR-TERM, AND THIS SUPPORTS
OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, WINDS WERE REDUCED JUST
A BIT IN THE NEAR-TERM, PARTICULARLY AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR NOW FROM POHNPEI TO THE DATE
LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHUUK WILL PUSH WESTWARD BY
SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE COMING WEEK BUT ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE EQUATOR.
00Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WITH LESS WIND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS AND SURF WILL STILL RISE A BIT
AT MAJURO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT KEEP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
LIKEWISE, SURF WILL BE ELEVATED AT KOSRAE TONIGHT, BUT JUST BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF WILL DROP 1 TO 2 FEET
BY MONDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
KOROR NEAR 5N139E. THIS CIRCULATION IS WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH THAT SITS JUST SOUTH OF KOROR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CIRCULATION WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FARTHER NORTHWEST, NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR KOROR AND YAP. THE TROUGH AND
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TRADES WILL
SET UP BY TUESDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT
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