578
FXPQ60 PGUM 062045
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 AM CHST SUN APR 7 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THICK
CIRRUS OVER GUAM PROVIDED FOR A COLORFUL SUNRISE, BUT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER IS SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. BUOYS SHOW SEAS OF 5 TO 6
FEET IN THE MARIANAS.
DISCUSSION
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHEAR LINE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK,
BUT FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHEAR LINE WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF
SAIPAN.
MARINE
SEAS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECLINE THE PAST DAY, AND WAVE MODELS SHOW
THAT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CAUSED THE KBDI TO DIP TODAY,
BUT NO ADDITIONAL RAINS PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITH EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THE FIRE
DANGER WILL SLOWLY RESUME ITS DAILY CLIMB. FORTUNATELY WEAKENED WINDS
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO TRIGGER PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST,
MUCH DRIER FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE SEEN FROM POHNPEI STATE EASTWARD
ACROSS KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THESE THREE PLACES THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER CHUUK BY MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST ASCAT AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 4N, STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE AT 165E ACROSS THE DATE LINE TO BEYOND 160W.
TOWARD MIDWEEK, A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE-WIND SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL CAUSE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE
EQUATOR. AS A RESULT, THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
ZONE CAN IMPACT ALL FOUR LOCATIONS. FUTURE SHIFTS NEED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BASED ON HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS.
DESPITE THE TRADE SURGE BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED, TRADE-
WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEAS
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR MAJURO THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AND
SURF ELSEWHERE SHOULD STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
A BROAD CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAVE
DRIFTED A BIT WESTWARD TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOROR NEAR 5N137E THIS
MORNING. AS THE CIRCULATION AND TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CONVERGING EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD PROLONG UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR THRU TUESDAY. FOR YAP,
SURFACE RIDGING BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
NEAR CHUUK WILL PROMOTE DRIER WEATHER UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD,
THE TRADE DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO BRING WETTER WEATHER THRU TUESDAY
EVENING. BY MIDWEEK, A DRY TRADE REGIME SHOULD RETURN TO FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
W. AYDLETT/CHAN
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