290
FXPQ60 PGUM 070600
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST SUN APR 7 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE FOUND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS
FOR GUAM AND THE CNMI. OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, EXPECT
MODERATE EAST TRADES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 5
TO 6 FEET THIS EVENING WILL FALL TO AROUND 4 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CAUSED THE KBDI TO DIP TODAY,
BUT NO ADDITIONAL RAINS PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITH EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THE FIRE
DANGER WILL SLOWLY RESUME ITS DAILY CLIMB. LIGHTER WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS POHNPEI, KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. MOST SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF 5N, MAINLY ACROSS BUTARITARI
AND TARAWA. TRADE-WIND FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. MODELS INDICATE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE EAST THIS WEEK AND THE FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE COULD
LIFT A LITTLE ABOVE 5N DURING THE WEEK. PATCHY SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE
AT MAJURO LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND AT KOSRAE ABOUT TUESDAY,
AND PERHAPS AT POHNPEI BY WEDNESDAY.
TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SEAS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR MAJURO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AND, EAST SURF AT KOSRAE MAY TOUCH 8 FEET AT TIMES DURING THE COMING
DAYS AND WILL BE MONITORED.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH VERY CLOSE TO KOROR
AND A WEAK CIRCULATION IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NEAR KOROR AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE TROUGH IS NEARBY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERY WEATHER WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEATHER AT YAP AND KOROR SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES BUT MORE SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE AT CHUUK
FROM THE EAST ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON
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