984
FXPQ60 PGUM 072127
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
727 AM CHST MON APR 8 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
REGION. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND AND ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET AT THE BUOYS.
DISCUSSION
MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING TREND OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MARIANAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH
MICRONESIA BUT MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF 10N. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
WILL ALLOW THE FIRE DANGER TO SLOWLY INCREASE, BUT WEAK WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE RATE OF SPREAD OF FIRES THAT DEVELOP. SEAS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE THIS WEEK WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AREA OF
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT
WILL BUILD NORTHWARD, REACHING MAJURO AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD, AFFECTING KOSRAE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POHNPEI WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL THEN REACH CHUUK THURSDAY, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AND PERHAPS A
BIT PAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, WITH WINDS
REMAINING MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. NO
WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE
HEADLINE FOR SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WAS REMOVED BASED ON AN
ALTIMETRY PASS NEAR MAJURO THAT SHOWED 6 TO 8 FEET. WENT AHEAD AND
BIASED THIS UP TO 7 TO 9, WHICH IS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THOUGH.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
THE WEATHER FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP,
WITH A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU. THE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
RETREATING TO THE SOUTH AND THE WEST. BEFORE IT FINISHES THAT, BOTH
PALAU AND YAP COULD SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL DOMINATE AND SEAS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NO WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
W. AYDLETT/STANKO
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