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FGMY70 PGUM 052153
ESFGUM
GUZ001-MPZ001>003-061000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
753 AM CHST FRI OCT 6 2023
..HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, KNOWN AS INVEST 98W FROM THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST-
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 7N157E. ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS
TOWARD THE MARIANAS, PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION SOMETIME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA,
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE.
ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT STRENGTH AND TRACK
CONCERNS, AS THERE'S STILL SOME DECENT VARIABILITY AMONGST THE
DIFFERENT MODELS REGARDING THIS, ONE THING THAT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY CERTAIN IS AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
DEVELOP.
TIMING: MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
RAINFALL: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
WINDS:STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MARINE:WAVES MAY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 14 FOOT RANGE AS
FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP,
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
IMPACTS:POTENTIAL HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLE COASTAL BEACH EROSION.
DOLL
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