146
AXPQ20 PGUM 020106
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1106 AM CHST WED APR 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES, ENTERING GUAM'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (AOR)
NEAR 1N130E, CURVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TO PASS THROUGH A WEAK BUFFER
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR EQ133 BEFORE CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
ROUGHLY 135E. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE SEEN HUGGING THE
EQUATOR WITHIN THE BUFFER CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR OUTER INDONESIAN
ISLANDS. THE NET AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA, MAKING A VERY GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
SEVERAL TRADE-WIND TROUGHS ARE SEEN ACROSS GUAM'S AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (AOR). TWO SHALLOW TROUGHS ARE SEEN EAST OF THE
MARIANAS, EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 19N146E TO
13N155E AND 20N154E TO 15N160E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY CLOUD
COVER ARE SEEN EXTENDING ALONG THE AXES OF THESE TRANSIENT FEATURES,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS MAY BRIEFLY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER, STRONGER TROUGH IS SEEN JUST EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS,
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM 8N179E TO AROUND 1N174E. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE SEEN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
RMI, BECOMING SCATTERED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF JALUIT
AND MAJURO ATOLLS. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR MAJURO AND KOSRAE AS IT STALLS OVER
THE MARSHALLS, GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A VERY WEAK REMNANT SHEAR LINE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE LATEST
ASCAT ANALYSIS, EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR 13N180, PASSING
JUST NORTH OF WENO, CHUUK, TO AROUND 8N148E. PATCHY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THIS FEATURE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOSE DEFINITION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
..ITCZ
AN ITCZ FRAGMENT IS SEEN EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH OF
POHNPEI NEAR 6N158E, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE TO CONTINUE
INTO SOUTHEAST YAP STATE, ENDING NEAR 3N142E. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ FRAGMENT, PARTICULARLY
IN THE AREA INCLUDING CHUUK LAGOON, NUKUORO, KOSRAE, AND POHNPEI,
WHERE THERE IS A NEARBY EMBEDDED ITCZ TROUGH. SOUTH OF WENO, CHUUK
AND WESTWARD, SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FRAGMENT. THE ITCZ AND EMBEDDED TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DECOU
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