362
FXPQ50 PGUM 090712
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
512 PM CHST SAT AUG 9 2025
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTIMETRY AND BUOYS
SHOW SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH ALTIMETRY SHOWING 2
TO 4 FEET EAST OF THE WATERS.
DISCUSSION
A FAIRLY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MARIANAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TUTT SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR GUAM, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ISLAND
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, HOWEVER, IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT,
THE RISK OF ISLAND CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.COMBINED SEAS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE TRADE-WIND SWELL INCREASES
BY AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SURF ENOUGH ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS TO RAISE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AT 1 PM, TROPICAL STORM PODUL (16W) WAS CENTERED NEAR 22N142E,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TS PODUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. PODUL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN,
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PODUL, PLEASE REFER TO
BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPN32 PGTW AND FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. ALTIMETRY AND BUOY DATA
SHOW COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS JUST
EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST WAS THE INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE ITCZ HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR POHNPEI, KOSRAE, AND MAJURO, WITH HIGH-END (50%) SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MAJURO TONIGHT AND KOSRAE TOMORROW. SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY REMAINS PRESENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING TO ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED
(30%). THIS LULL APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER FLEX IN THE
ITCZ LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET MAY RISE A FOOT OR SO AS A LARGER TRADE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHOPPY SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCUR.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TODAY'S SCATTEROMETRY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PATCHY SHOWERS WITHIN A PATTERN OF LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM PODUL CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
TRACK, WELL NORTH OF PALAU AND YAP. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OF THE
EXACT TIMING OF PEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE WEAK AND
UNORGANIZED PATTERN THAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING, SO REFRAINED FROM
PUTTING IN MENTION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR PALAU AND YAP, BUT THIS
MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS. STILL, CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS WETTER WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT FOR YAP
AND PALAU. FOR CHUUK, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
OVERNIGHT, TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD TROUGH WITHIN A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, A BROAD TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
CHUUK STATE AND MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA LATE WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUOY
AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR PALAU AND YAP
AND UP TO 4 FEET NEAR CHUUK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
GENTLE, VARIABLE AT TIMES.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/TROPICAL: KLEESCHULTE
EAST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
WEST MICRONESIA: CRUZ
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