245
WWPQ82 PGUM 230818
SPSPQ2
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
618 PM CHST TUE SEP 23 2025
FMZ037-PWZ002>006-240830-
YAP-MELEKEOK-AIRAI-KOROR-PELELIU-ANGAUR-
618 PM CHST TUE SEP 23 2025
..INTENSIFYING INVEST 92W TO BRING STRONG GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN
..SURF TO BUILD ALONG NORTH AND WEST REEFS OVER NEXT FEW DAYS
A BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC)'S
INVEST 92W, IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF YAP AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU NEAR 10.1N 135.5E, AND IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 92W IS CURRENTLY
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (TCFA), MEANING IT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TROPICAL
DEPRESSION) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY.
THIS AFTERNOON'S SCATTEROMETRY ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR
PALAU REVEAL WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, WITH LIGHTER WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEAR YAP. HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ALONG THE SYSTEM'S NORTH AND WESTERN FLANKS, COVERING PALAU THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 92W WILL MAKE A SLIGHT DIP TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF PALAU TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 22 KNOTS OVER PALAU COASTAL WATERS,
GENERATING SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED GALE FORCE (34 KNOTS)
AT TIMES. MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LANDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IF SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED NORTH AND WEST SWELLS STRENGTHENED BY 92W'S
PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 FT ALONG NORTH
AND WEST REEFS OF PALAU AND WEST REEFS OF YAP BEGINNING EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF LOOKS TO SPREAD TO SOUTH FACING
REEFS OF YAP DUE TO AN ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL BEHIND 92W. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER 92W EXITS TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS A MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE, WHICH
COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED SOUTHWEST SWELL, AND POTENTIALLY BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF TO SOUTH FACING REEFS OF PALAU LATER THIS WEEK.
RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE
REGION AT WEATHER.GOV/GUM/PUBLICFORECASTS AND ANY INFORMATION SHARED
BY WSO PALAU AND WSO YAP FOR THEIR LOCAL REGIONS, AS WELL AS JTWC
BULLETINS UNDER WTPN21 PGTW.
DECOU
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