602
AXPQ20 PGUM 090043
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1043 AM CHST THU OCT 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL CYCLONES...
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (29W) IS LOCATED WITHIN WFO GUAM'S AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (AOR), WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 22.3N
136.0E. HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION SEEN
WITHIN NAKRI'S SOUTHWEST QUADRANT EXTENDING ROUGHLY 250 MILES
OUT. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 18 MPH IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 45 MPH. TS NAKRI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY
AND GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT EXITS THE
AOR, BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
A WEAK MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, ENTERING THE AOR AROUND
10N130E, PASSING TO THE EAST OF PALAU TO END AT A COL NEAR
7N137E. SOUTH OF THIS BROAD TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVER YAP. SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH, WITH A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SEEN NEAR KOROR THIS
MORNING, PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL TROUGH
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS NEAR YAP AND PALAU THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE AND TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
SEVERAL SURFACE AND TRADE-WIND TROUGHS EXIST WITHIN THE REGION.
THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE IS SEEN EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
EAST OF GUAM NEAR 13N151E, ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL YAP STATE TO
END NEAR 2N140E, WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EAURIPIK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TROUGH AXIS (FROM ROUGHLY SATAWAL NORTHWARD), WITH
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN YAP STATE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM COASTAL
WATERS WITHIN A SUBTLE AREA OF TROUGHING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BROADER TROUGH, LIKELY ENHANCED BY TROUGHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE BROADER FEATURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, INCREASING SHOWERS NEAR THE MARIANAS AND YAP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK, THEN FRAGMENT INTO A FEW WEAKER TROUGHS THIS
WEEKEND TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE MARIANAS.
A WEAKER TROUGH IS SEEN EAST OF THE MARIANAS, EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
AROUND 21N154E TO 13N154E, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, LOOKING TO MERGE WITH THE BROADER AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS, INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY.
LASTLY, A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AOR
FROM BEYOND 7N180, CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS
TO END NEAR NAMORIK AT AROUND 6N168E, PASSING JUST NORTH OF
MAJURO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS, WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND LATER
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINTAINING A FAIRLY
WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TUTT...
THE TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE AOR FROM BEYOND 22N180,
PASSING THROUGH A WEAK TUTT LOW TO THE EAST OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR
18N173E, THEN CONTINUING TO AROUND 14N162E. THE TUTT LOW LOOKS TO
SHIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE IT MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA THIS WEEKEND, BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING IS INTERACTING LITTLE WITH ANY SURFACE
FEATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TUTT LOOKS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND
OVER THE MARIANAS AS A NEW TUTT LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF WAKE.
DECOU
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