166
AXPQ20 PGUM 110054
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1054 AM CHST TUE NOV 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH STRETCHES FROM EQ145E TO A BROAD, WEAK BUFFER
CIRCULATION THAT'S ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 2N143E,
CONTINUING NORTHWEST THROUGH NGULU BEFORE ENDING NORTH OF KOROR AT
11N135E. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THIS FEATURE
SOUTH OF 10N. A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HEADS WEST.
A SECOND TROUGH IN THE FLOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF POHNPEI NEAR
4N158E TO BETWEEN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AT 7N161E, ENDING AT 10N162E.
HERE TOO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN TWO POCKETS ALONG THE TROUGH, WITH THE
HEAVIEST/LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FOUND NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
IT HEADS WEST.
FINALLY, FURTHER EAST WE HAVE A SUBTLE AND SMALLER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM MAJURO NEAR 7N171E TO 10N172E. THIS FEATURE
DENOTES A RENEWED SURGE OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE ITCZ, THAT
CONTINUES WELL EAST OF THE DATE LINE WHILE STRETCHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THIS IS A SIGNAL THAT INDICATES THE ITCZ WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT 9N AXIS TO CLOSER TO 5N OR 6N WITH
TIME, WHICH IS WHAT THE MODELS SHOW OCCURRING BY THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, UPSTREAM STREAMLINE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ADDITIONAL TROUGHS SET TO CROSS THE DATE LINE AND HEAD WEST, AS
THE ITCZ EXPANDS WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT 25N174E AND STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR WAKE ISLAND (JUST EAST OF THERE) TO 11N160E
WHERE IT TURNS WEST AS IT EXTENDS TO A COL AT 11N150E, WHERE IT
ENDS. DIVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS HELPING FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BETWEEN 5N AND
10N FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD TO 170E, WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS TO 15N. THEN, AFTER PASSING THROUGH A "DRY
WEDGE" THE TROUGH BECOMES CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS YOU
HEAD NORTH ALONG IT FROM 19N TO 25N, WITH A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT DISSOLVES, AS A
FAIRLY STOUT AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION, CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE CNMI BY
THE WEEKEND.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR
ANY EMBEDDED THROUGH IN THE FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED, WHILE ALSO SETTLING SOUTH TO BETWEEN 4N AND 8N
BY THE WEEKEND.
DOLL
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