012
FXPQ50 PGUM 011814
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
414 AM CHST FRI JAN 2 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT PALAU GIVEN A SURFACE TROUGH LURKING JUST OFF TO YOUR WEST, AND
WITH SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWING LIGHT WINDS, ISLAND CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF
RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE REDUCE WITH A LATE MORNING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 541 PM CHST THU JAN 1 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND
ALTIMETRY SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A MUCH DRIER PATTERN TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NO SHOWERS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY, IT'S GOING TO BE DRY FOR A FEW
DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER SHEAR LINE COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE IN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT
ON THIS, SO MAINTAINED LOWER SHOWER CHANCES FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE/SURF...
THE BIG STORY IS IN THE MARINE AND SURF FORECAST. NOT MUCH GOING ON
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED
NORTH SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS LOOK TO BUILD FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ON SUNDAY TO BETWEEN 7 AND 10
FEET SUNDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AT AROUND 8 TO 11 FEET MONDAY. FOR NOW,
MAINTAINED SEAS AT 8 TO 11 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER, SEAS COULD
FALL RAPIDLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE SEAS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
LARGE NORTH SWELL, HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG NORTH
FACING REEFS, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG NORTH
FACING REEFS AND POSSIBLE ALONG EAST FACING REEFS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK, ELONGATED CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE AND SOUTHERN KOSRAE
STATE. MEANWHILE, DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF POHNPEI, KOSRAE,
AND MAJURO. LATEST IMAGERY FROM THE CIMMS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A
DRIER AIRMASS CONTAINING ONLY 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN A TRADE-
WIND TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR THE DATE LINE NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS TO MAJURO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODERATE TRADE SWELL AND A PULSE OF LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING, OCCASIONALLY REACHING HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLDS OF 9 FEET ALONG NORTH-FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
AND 8 FEET ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. AS NORTHERLY SWELL
SUBSIDES FRIDAY NIGHT, SURF MAY DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG
NORTH-FACING REEFS, BUT CONTINUE ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
POHNPEI THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR KOSRAE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MAJURO, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
MINOR INUNDATION ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORELINES DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
TRADE AND NORTHERLY SWELLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THE FULL MOON
ENHANCING THE TIDES. THE PEAK HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO
6 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, DECREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
KOROR, PALAU AND YAP PROPER HAVE A COUPLE OF TRADE-WIND TROUGHS
PASSING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THEM. BEING FURTHER SOUTH, KOROR, PALAU
WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ISOLATED ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN 5 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BECOMING 5 TO 8 FEET SUNDAY, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY. KOROR,
PALAU HAS ABOUT A 26% CHANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, SO MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD BE CHALLENGING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAZARDOUS.
FOR YAP PROPER MEANWHILE, DRIER WEATHER WITH ONLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS THE
REST OF THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN REACH 6 TO 8 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH JUST A 23%
CHANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BE
CHALLENGING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAZARDOUS.
FOR CHUUK LAGOON MEANWHILE, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN AGING SHEAR LINE IS THE ONLY THING CLOSE,
AND IT IS GETTING WEAK AND DIFFUSE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE
10% OR LESS IN CHUUK LAGOON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SO MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BENIGN.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: DOLL
MARIANAS: KLEESCHULTE
EAST MICRONESIA: CRUZ
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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