189
FXPQ50 PGUM 021812
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
412 AM CHST SAT JAN 3 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE CYCLE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI,
AS ALTIMETRY AND BUOY DATA SHOWS HAZARDOUS SURF HAS SUBSIDED. ON A
SIDE NOTE, A PRETTY STOUT UPPER LOW HAS FORMED EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
NEAR THE DATE LINE. THIS HAS HELPED FUNNEL MUCH DRIER AIR INTO
POHNPEI, KOSRAE, AND MAJURO, WHERE PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES)
ARE NEAR 1.1 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH, PWATS NEAR WAKE ISLAND HAVE
PLUMMETED TO 0.9 INCHES.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING HIGH-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO PALAU AND YAP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE GOING FORECAST HAS
50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH LOOKS GOOD. CHUUK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. ALL IN
ALL, THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS THINGS IN GREAT SHAPE. THUS, NO FORECAST
UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 622 PM CHST FRI JAN 2 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS, AND BUOY
DATA SHOWS 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS AT 9 SECONDS.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE MARIANAS. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER, SUNDAY IS WHEN THINGS
LOOK TO GET INTERESTING. A SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AROUND SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHEAR LINE MAY BRING WITH
IT BREEZY CONDITION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS ANOTHER POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
SHOWERS.
MARINE...
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE TONIGHT, THEN
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH STARTING SUNDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTH SWELL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY THEN, SEAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 8 AND 11
FEET, LIKELY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS, HOWEVER, WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 25
KNOTS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAIN FORECAST LOCATIONS. A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION, FROM 9N180, PASSING SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO AND SOUTH
OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI, ENDING NEAR 5N153E. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADES, AS WELL AS SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE, WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES ARE MEETING INTO LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES. LATEST IMAGERY FROM THE CIMMS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS
A DRIER AIRMASS CONTAINING ONLY 1.15 TO 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND A BIT MORE SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH
OF MAJURO, WHICH ATTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS OF 1.40 TO 1.80 INCHES. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THEN A TRADE-WIND TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR THE DATE
LINE NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THIS MAY LINK UP TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, POSSIBLY BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS TO MAJURO NEXT WEEK.
VOLCANIC SMOG (VOG) AND HAZE REPORTS HAVE COME IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
FROM THE MARSHALLS AND RECENTLY AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK, RESULTING IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THIS VOG OR HAZE HAS TRAVELED FROM
VOLCANIC ACTIVITY AT KILAUEA IN HAWAII, RIDING ALONG NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, AREAS OF
DIFFUSE, SMOKEY-LIKE AIR CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN EQ AND 12N AND FROM
150E TO 180. IF VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO 6 STATUE MILES, THEN THIS
WILL WARRANT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. FOR NOW, UPDATES BASED ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND OBSERVER REPORTS WILL BE PROVIDED IF
NECESSARY. A STATEMENT FROM USGS READS, "KILAUEA HAS BEEN ERUPTING
EPISODICALLY SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2024...ERUPTIVE EPISODES, WHICH CAN
LAST UP TO 12 HOURS, ARE SEPARATED BY PAUSES THAT CAN BE AS LONG AS
OVER TWO WEEKS". THIS, THE TRADE-WIND PATTERN AND THE TIME IT TAKES
FOR VOLCANIC HAZE TO TRAVEL FROM HAWAII, SPEAKS TO SOME VARIABILITY
THAT MAY OCCUR WITH THE HAZE OVER THE REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON KILAUEA'S ACTIVITY, REFER TO THE USGS WEBSITE AT
USGS.GOV/VOLCANOES/KILAUEA/VOLCANO-UPDATES.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR KOSRAE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
TRADE SWELL AND A PULSE OF LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS, OCCASIONALLY
REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG NORTH-FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND
ALONG NORTH- AND EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. AS NORTHERLY SWELL
SUBSIDES TONIGHT, SURF MAY DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG NORTH-
FACING REEFS, BUT CONTINUE ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MAJURO, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, FOR MINOR INUNDATION ALONG
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORELINES DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS IS
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRADE AND NORTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AND THE FULL MOON ENHANCING THE TIDES. A PEAK IN HIGH TIDES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, DECREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A COUPLE OF TRADE-WIND TROUGHS WILL BE PASSING OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF
KOROR, PALAU AND YAP PROPER. AS A RESULT, KOROR WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND ISOLATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, KOROR WILL HAVE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BACK
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUILD A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, PEAKING PEAKING
AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET, THEN DIMINISH BACK TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE HIGHER SEAS.
FOR YAP, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN SCATTERED
SATURDAY, THEN BACK TO ISOLATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
BARELY GRAZES THEM. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 7 TO
9 FEET, THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS LIKELY DURING THE HIGHER SEAS.
AT CHUUK, THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET. VOLCANIC HAZE FROM KILAUEA IN HAWAII IS FILTERING
THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA, AND AT TIMES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR
CHUUK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: DOLL
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: CRUZ
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page