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AXPQ20 PGUM 010035
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1035 AM CHST SUN FEB 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A BROAD CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO TRY TO ORGANIZE, AS IT'S
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 4N148E. THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NET AND IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY LIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT,
TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT HEADS TOWARDS PALAU, NGULU, OR
YAP. AS IT DOES SO, THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT'S ALSO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IN ADDITION TO ALL OF YAP STATE
EXPERIENCING THIS, GUAM COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION OF RECEIVING
SOME WELCOMED HEAVIER RAINFALL, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SLOWLY DEVELOPING CIRCULATION.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT 3N130E AND EXTENDS EAST TO A SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION NEAR 4N148E. THE NET THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST
AND ENDS WELL SOUTH OF POHNPEI/SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE AT EQ157E.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS FEATURE. THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN THE CASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE NET REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY,
WITH LOCALIZED ADJUSTMENTS IN ITS POSITION TIED TO THE SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION THAT AUGMENTS IT'S (THE NET) ORIENTATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
THE FIRST TRADE-WIND TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM THE
CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH NGULU, ENDING NEAR 10N136E.
NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING WITH THIS FEATURE, ASIDE FROM SOME WIDELY-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LONE THUNDERSTORM. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE NET OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
THE NEXT TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 4N151E AND EXTENDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CHUUK, ENDING WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR
11N151E. THIS FEATURE DENOTES MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE, AS PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 2.5 TO 3 INCH
RANGE (LOCALLY HIGHER) PER MIMIC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS TROUGH
FEATURES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH HEADS WEST-
NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A SUBTLE TROUGH HAS FORMED NEAR MAJURO, EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF
THERE NEAR 5N171E TO JUST WEST OF MAJURO AT 8N170E, EXTENDING
NORTH BEFORE ENDING AT 17N169E. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MAJURO, ENDING
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. THIS IS OCCURRING IN SOMEWHAT NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE CONFLUENCE NOTED IN THE MIMIC WATER VAPOR LOOP. A SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THESE FEATURES HEAD WEST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A SHEAR LINE ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT 13N130E AND EXTENDS EAST-
NORTHEAST TO NEAR ROTA IN THE CNMI, CONTINUING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO NEAR WAKE ISLAND AT 20N163E (NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND),
TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT AS IT DOES SO. THE COLD FRONT
THEN CONTINUES NORTHEAST TO 25N175E WHERE IT EXITS GUAM'S AOR.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, AND
SEAS INCREASE INTO THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN, SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND ALTIMETRY. THIS
IS MOST-PRONOUNCED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CNMI AND NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST, TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTENSION OF THE SHEAR
LINE AS IT DOES SO, WITH THE PORTION OF THE SHEARLINE FROM 130E TO
THE MARIANAS REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING
BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DOLL
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