868
AXPQ20 PGUM 020106
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1106 AM CHST MON FEB 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A BROAD CIRCULATION IN EASTERN YAP STATE IS NOW PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. WHILE THE OVERNIGHT
ASCAT ANALYSIS REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR 4N141E, RECENT CIMSS
850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA, NEAR THAT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND FARTHER NORTH NEAR 9N142E ALONG A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
SECOND VORT-MAX IS WHERE STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS IS
FOUND. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM YAP TO CHUUK AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE MARIANAS WHERE A DESCENDING SHEAR LINE IS HELPING
TO BOOST SHOWERS. THOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY A
NUMBERED INVEST AREA BY THE JTWC, IT IS ONE CLOSELY BEING WATCHED DUE
TO MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT HEADS TOWARD YAP AND PALAU, AND POINTS
WESTWARD. THOUGH SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW, IT WILL
NONETHELESS BRING BOUTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY TO YAP STATE, THEN PALAU, THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG
WITH STRONG GUSTS.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN YAP STATE
CIRCULATION TO SOUTH OF POHNPEI NEAR EQ160E. BEYOND THE HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN NEAR THE CIRCULATION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRESENT NEAR CHUUK AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD KAPINGAMARANGI, GENERALLY SOUTH OF 6N FROM 147E TO 160E. HEAVY
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN THIS REGION,
WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION POSSIBLY
EMERGING SOUTH OF POHNPEI OR CHUUK LATER THIS WEEK.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS AND ITCZ...
A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE SEEN NEAR KOSRAE AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO
ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ITCZ. THESE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
OF 30-35 MPH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING BETWEEN 4N AND 7N.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 21N180 AND DROPS WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR WAKE ISLAND NEAR 18N167E WHERE IT THEN CONTINUES WEST-
SOUTHWEST AS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CNMI NEAR 14N145E AND MERGES
INTO THE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION OF THE BROAD DISTURBANCE IN YAP STATE.
LATEST SCATTEROMETRY SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING COMBINED SEAS OF 10-11 FT, SUPPORTIVE OF
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND SURF IN THE MARIANAS. CLOUDINESS AND
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND
COLD FRONT EAST OF 150E, WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND TO THE WEST, INCLUDING OVER THE MARIANAS DUE TO THE
INFUSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH. THOUGH
THE BROADER EXTEND OF THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, DISTURBED AND GUSTY WEATHER
WILL BE MORE PROLONGED OVER THE MARIANAS AND TO THE WEST DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE.
AYDLETT
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