059
FXPQ50 PGUM 110845
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 PM CHST WED FEB 11 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FEET, WHILE IPAN BUOY SHOWS HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA), HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
STATEMENT (HRRC), AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL. THIS WILL MAKE
IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO BE PRODUCED. LOOKING UP STREAM AND
INTO THE LONG RANGE MODEL DATA, SHOWERS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SEAS AND SURF. SEAS AND
SURF ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COMBINED SEAS MAY FALL BELOW THE 10 FOOT THRESHOLD AS EARLY AS
THE MORNING. THE SURF AND RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A TRADE-
WIND SURGE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION, THIS WILL ASSIST IN
DELAYING THE GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF THE SEAS AND SURF. ANOTHER MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SHEAR LINE THAT WOULD BUILD THE SEAS AND
WINDS BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEAS AND SURF. THE OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETRY PASS SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFFECTING
POHNPEI, WITH THESE WINDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THERE TO NEAR 165E.
AS SUCH, WE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) TO ACCOUNT
FOR EITHER SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY MEETING OR
EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 10 FEET. THIS
SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY. AS FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, ALTIMETRY SUPPORTS KEEPING THESE
ADVISORIES IN PLACE. AT MAJURO, SEAS AND SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, ISOLATED SHOWERS IS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WE
CAN EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL POSSIBLY
INCREASING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINERS AT POHNPEI WILL SEE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THERE, DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO, MARINERS CAN EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSISTING.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA ARE A TRADE-
WIND SURGE WITH CHUUK AT ITS WESTERN EDGE AND A TRADE-WIND TROUGH
BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR.
CHUUK WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND BETWEEN
THOSE TWO PERIODS. CHUUK WILL HAVE WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7
FEET FRIDAY, LEADING TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD.
YAP WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIODS. YAP WILL HAVE WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FEET
TONIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN BUILD BACK TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET SATURDAY LEADING TO
CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS THAT COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS.
KOROR, PALAU WILL HAVE 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS TONIGHT. KOROR WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK, HOPEFULLY ALLAYING ANY DROUGHT CONCERNS. KOROR WILL HAVE 6 TO 8
FOOT SEAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH MONDAY,
LEADING TO MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AFTER TONIGHT.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT/DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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