514
FXPQ50 PGUM 120809
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
609 PM CHST THU FEB 12 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FEET, WHILE IPAN BUOY SHOWS HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 7 FEET. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA), AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
STATEMENT (HRRC) OVER THE REGION
DISCUSSION
OVER ALL A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE MARIANAS, WITH A
FEW CAVEATS. DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMA IN THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
EVENING HOURS WILL BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST AND SHORT LIVED. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, A SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING IN THE NEXT ROUND SHOWERS.
MARINE/SURF
THE MARINE IS STILL THE FOCAL POINT OF TODAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AS SEA CONDITION
IMPROVED. SEA CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET
WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
SHEAR LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY BUILD
SEA CONDITIONS UP AND A MIDLATITUDE HIGH MAY BUILD THE NORTH SWELL
BACK UP.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING REEFS HAS FALLEN BELOW THE 9 FOOT MARK AND THE
ADVISORY ON THAT REEF WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, HOWEVER THE SURF ALONG
NORTH REEFS REMAIN ABOVE 9 FEET AND WAS CONTINUED THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SEAS, THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR POHNPEI. LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWED SEAS UPWARD OF 11 FEET WEST
OF POHNPEI. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT POHNPEI SHOW SEAS HOVERING
AROUND 9.5 FEET, HAVING PEAKED JUST OVER 11 FEET EARLIER THIS
MORNING, SO HAVE INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND KOSRAE BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 FEET AROUND THAT TIME. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE AND NORTH FACING
REEFS OF POHNPEI WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3 AM SUNDAY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIKELY BE MET. MAJURO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OBSERVE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TODAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MODERATE TONIGHT AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE,
WHILE THE WINDS AT MAJURO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO FRESH BREEZES ON
FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AT POHNPEI. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET AT POHNPEI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 6 TO 9 FEET AT BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASING FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT/DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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