665
FXPQ50 PGUM 121925
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
525 AM CHST FRI FEB 13 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST FOR THE MARIANAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING
REEFS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS.
SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPPING TO MODERATE ALONG ALL REEFS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA
THIS MORNING. A DRY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MARINE FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER FOR TODAY'S FORECAST FOR
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE POHNPEI BUOY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS AROUND 9
FEET, HOWEVER, ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS. THE NORTH SWELL AND TRADE SWELL
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUFFICIENTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEAS
TO FALL BELOW 10 FEET. FOR KOSRAE, THE NORTHEAST TRADE SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH INCREASED SHOWERS SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF WENO AND SOUTH
OF YAP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOUND ACROSS CHUUK, WITH THE LATEST
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET JUST EAST OF WENO.
BASED ON ALTIMETRY, THE PREVIOUS CHUUK FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10
FEET. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 609 PM CHST THU FEB 12 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FEET, WHILE IPAN BUOY SHOWS HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 7 FEET. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA), AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
STATEMENT (HRRC) OVER THE REGION
DISCUSSION...
OVER ALL A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE MARIANAS, WITH A
FEW CAVEATS. DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMA IN THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
EVENING HOURS WILL BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST AND SHORT LIVED. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, A SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING IN THE NEXT ROUND SHOWERS.
MARINE/SURF...
THE MARINE IS STILL THE FOCAL POINT OF TODAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AS SEA CONDITION
IMPROVED. SEA CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET
WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
SHEAR LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY BUILD
SEA CONDITIONS UP AND A MIDLATITUDE HIGH MAY BUILD THE NORTH SWELL
BACK UP.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING REEFS HAS FALLEN BELOW THE 9 FOOT MARK AND THE
ADVISORY ON THAT REEF WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, HOWEVER THE SURF ALONG
NORTH REEFS REMAIN ABOVE 9 FEET AND WAS CONTINUED THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SEAS, THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR POHNPEI. LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWED SEAS UPWARD OF 11 FEET WEST
OF POHNPEI. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT POHNPEI SHOW SEAS HOVERING
AROUND 9.5 FEET, HAVING PEAKED JUST OVER 11 FEET EARLIER THIS
MORNING, SO HAVE INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND KOSRAE BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 FEET AROUND THAT TIME. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE AND NORTH FACING
REEFS OF POHNPEI WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3 AM SUNDAY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIKELY BE MET. MAJURO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OBSERVE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TODAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MODERATE TONIGHT AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE,
WHILE THE WINDS AT MAJURO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO FRESH BREEZES ON
FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AT POHNPEI. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET AT POHNPEI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 6 TO 9 FEET AT BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASING FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: KLEESCHULTE
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT/DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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