680
FXPQ50 PGUM 131833
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
433 AM CHST SAT FEB 14 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SURF AROUND 9 FEET ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH TODAY, THEN BUILD A BIT AS THE TRADE SWELL
INCREASES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
ONLY ONE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS, DECREASED SHOWERS AT KOSRAE TO
ISOLATED FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, THE NORTHEAST TRADE SWELL AND NORTH SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND
ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR YAP AND PALAU.
FOR CHUUK, LATEST MEDEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A DRIER
PATTERN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS THEREFORE
DECREASED TO ISOLATED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 608 PM CHST FRI FEB 13 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE IPAN BUOY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FEET, KEEPING IN MIND THAT IT'S SHELTERED FROM THE NORTH
SWELL, SO IT'S PROBABLY 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN OCEAN.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MARIANAS. A
SHEAR LINE COULD APPROACH THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW THAT IS
BEYOND THE FORECAST AND PROBABLY SPECULATIVE ANYWAY. WE HAVE PLENTY
OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE SO FOR THE SHORT TERM, AND EVEN THE MEDIUM
TERM, THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT
STARTS TO TILT OVER TO A DROUGHT, WHILE ALSO WATCHING TO SEE IF THE
DRY WEATHER MIGHT BE INTERRUPTED. FOR NOW, WE CAN FEEL FREE TO ENJOY
IT.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING IN THE MARIANAS WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN, ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEY COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE GEFSWAVE IS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SO, IT MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN, AND IF IT
DOES, IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY MARGINAL. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AND
EVEN A LITTLE BEYOND THOUGH, THE WAVES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. FOR NOW THIS IS ESTIMATED TO BE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SUBTLE
TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WEST OF MAJURO.
WHILE THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AT TIMES AS IT
PASSES BY THE ISLANDS, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF TRADE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE MAIN ISLANDS AND THE EQUATOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF SHOWERS AROUND KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS IT OSCILLATES
NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT WITH POHNPEI'S BUOY REPORTING SEAS
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET AND ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS UP TO 9 FEET EAST OF
MAJURO. THIS DATA SUPPORTED ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT
POHNPEI TO EXPIRE AS SEAS HAD DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET AND WINDS OF 22
KT OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE A FOOT OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRIMARY
SWELL SUBSIDES. THE TRADE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT, POTENTIALLY CREATING
CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED DUE TO THE
PRIMARY TRADE SWELL AND SLOWLY DECREASING SECONDARY NORTHERLY SWELL,
WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING
REEFS OF POHNPEI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE IS CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE MAY DROP BELOW 9 FEET BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SECONDARY
SWELL SLOWLY DECREASES, BUT THE PRIMARY TRADE SWELL SHOULD KEEP SURF
ALONG EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME.
SURF IS ELEVATED AT MAJURO BUT IS BELOW THE 12 FOOT THRESHOLD FOR
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS PATCHY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH A BAND EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM JUST
EAST OF KOROR, STRETCHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN YAP
STATE, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOROL, EAURIPIK, AND SATAWAL.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-
WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY WHERE THESE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED, ALONG
THE EDGE OF A DECAYING TRADE-WIND SURGE, AND BROAD, SHALLOW TROUGHING.
THERE IS A BROAD REGION OF 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS, AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. OVERALL THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF A FAIRLY QUIET TRADE-WIND
REGIME ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR YAP AND
CHUUK TONIGHT, AND LOW-END SCATTERED (30 PERCENT CHANCE) SHOWERS FOR
PALAU, AS THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST PORTION OF THE SHOWER BAND SHIFTS
WEST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A FAIRLY DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK,
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATES COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET NEAR
PALAU, INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 FEET TO THE EAST AROUND YAP AND CHUUK,
COMPRISED OF AN ELEVATED NORTHEAST TRADE SWELL AND A DIMINISHING
NORTH SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PALAU AND YAP
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
DECAYING TRADE SURGE, WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NEAR
CHUUK. SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE BY A FOOT OR TWO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE TRADE SWELL.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: KLEESCHULTE
MARIANAS: STANKO
EAST MICRONESIA: SCHANK
WEST MICRONESIA: MESA/DECOU
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