237
FXPQ50 PGUM 151922
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
522 AM CHST MON FEB 16 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS TO THE REGION TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CNMI AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR GUAM
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BUILD IN ACROSS
GUAM WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
A HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PEAK IN COMBINED SEAS AROUND
NOON, THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10
FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO 5 TO 7 FEET AROUND MIDWEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION, PASSING
SOUTH OF MAJURO AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KOSRAE. KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR KOSRAE AND INCREASED
SHOWERS AT POHNPEI DUE TO AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN WATERS.
DUE TO THE NEW MOON PHASE, MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORELINES OF
MAJURO, TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
AN INCREASE IN TRADE SWELL COULD BRING HAZARDOUS SURF BACK TO EAST
FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO ITS
LOWER THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE TRADE-WIND SURGE NORTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONTRIBUTED
TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS OF PALAU
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF YAP PROPER. UPDATED PALAU'S FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATING AN INCREASE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR YAP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HAZARDOUS WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO JUST UNDER HAZARDOUS CRITERIA,
AT 7 TO 9 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHEAST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
ALSO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF YAP
AND PALAU THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS
LEVELS OF 9 FEET FOR NORTH FACING REEFS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 555 PM CHST SUN FEB 15 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
EAST OF THE ISLANDS, PART OF A FRAGMENT OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT
NEAR WAKE ISLAND AND BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE-WIND FLOW. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET, DRIVEN BY GUSTY TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED TRADE
SWELL, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR EAST-FACING
REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING A SEASONALLY DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RAOB SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DISTINCT
TRADE-WIND INVERSION (TEMPERATURE INVERSION) BETWEEN 850-700 MB WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.20 TO 1.45 INCHES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, PART OF A FRAGMENTING COLD FRONT AND SHEAR
LINE, AND BEING CARRIED TOWARDS THE ISLANDS BY THE TRADE-WINDS.
RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD BAND,
BUT MOST ARE FAIRLY SMALL IN SIZE, LIKELY DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE
LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE TRADE-WIND INVERSION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR, KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) LIMITED TO 30
PERCENT, AND EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. OVERALL,
FAIRLY SEASONAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ADDITIONAL FRAGMENTS
AND TRADE-WIND TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE MARIANAS LATER IN THE WEEK,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
MARIANAS, BUT ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE
SHOWERS.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET DUE TO ELEVATED TRADE
WINDS AND SWELL, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATIONS TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE, DECREASING TO 5 TO 7 FEET AROUND MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE TONIGHT, SLOWLY DECREASING TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS AND A MODERATE RISK ALONG NORTH
AND SOUTH FACING REEFS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE MID WEEK AS THE
TRADE SWELL SUBSIDES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FAIRLY TYPICAL DRY-SEASON TRADE WIND PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF TRADE CONVERGENCE CENTERED FROM WELL EAST OF MAJURO AT
THE DATE LINE, TO JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO, TO SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. NEAR
THIS LINE IS WHERE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS TO KOSRAE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF THIS CONVERGENCE LINE WILL NUDGE NORTH TO BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO POHNPEI AND MAJURO. THIS LOOKS MOST PROBABLE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD A FOOT OR SO FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, AS A NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVES THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH JUST EAST OF CHUUK IS NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT
THERE AS THE SHOWERS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON. THEREFORE, THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES INFLUENCING WESTERN MICRONESIA ARE FRAGMENTS
COMING OFF A SHEAR LINE EAST OF YAP AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
SOUTH OF KOROR, PALAU AND YAP.
CHUUK WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE-
WIND TROUGH LIFTS A LITTLE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REIGN BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY, OR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 6
TO 8 FEET FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
YAP WILL FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SHEAR
LINE FRAGMENTS WILL AFFECT THEM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY, WHERE THEY WILL STAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN
THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN CHALLENGING
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KOROR, PALAU, EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WHEN THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT, DIMINISHING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISHING FURTHER TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE AT 6 TO 8 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW 9 FOOT VALUES POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BE 5 TO 7 FEET WEDNESDAY, AND FINALLY 4 TO 6 FEET
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BE CHALLENGING TONIGHT
DUE TO WINDS AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO SEAS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: CRUZ
MARIANAS: SCHANK
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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