129
FXPQ50 PGUM 161947
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 AM CHST TUE FEB 17 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECAYING SHEAR
LINE FRAGMENT, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL EAST OF CNMI COASTAL WATERS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS BY TONIGHT. THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR GUAM TODAY AND FOR BOTH
GUAM AND ROTA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, SURF WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE TRADE
SWELL SUBSIDES, ALLOWING THE RIP RISK TO DECREASE TO MODERATE ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS TONIGHT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG A ZONE OF WEAK TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR KOSRAE, WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO.
THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS
AT KOSRAE LATE TONIGHT AS THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH. RETAINED THE PLAIN-TEXT
HEADLINES FOR ELEVATED SURF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NORTH-
FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND NORTH- AND EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE,
AS WELL AS THE HEADLINE FOR MAJURO REGARDING MINOR INUNDATION
POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. AROUND
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS
OF 22 KT FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATIONS AT KOSRAE, HOWEVER A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SINCE GEFS WAVE GUIDANCE ONLY HAS THIS AT A
30 PERCENT PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA CAPTURED A WEAK EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IN THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, NEAR 5N137E. BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT, AS WELL AS WEAK TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE NET BROUGHT NUMEROUS LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WAS UPDATED IN YAP'S FORECAST,
WITH SHOWERS DECREASING TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT UPDATE FOR PALAU, NUMEROUS SHOWERS STRUGGLED TO BUILD IN,
CONTRARY TO MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, NO UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND LEFT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CONVECTION REORGANIZES AROUND THE NET TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 621 PM CHST MON FEB 16 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. TO THE EAST NEAR 150E PART OF A FRAGMENT OF A DECAYING
SHEAR LINE IS BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE-WIND FLOW. SEAS ARE AROUND 7
TO 9 FEET FEET, DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED
TRADE SWELL. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR EAST-FACING
REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY SEASONAL TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THOUGH THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM DRIER PATTERN IS CAUSED WHEN
PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS AND FRAGMENTS FROM DECAYING SHEAR
LINES/COLD FRONTS ARE PUSHED OVER THE ISLAND BY TRADE WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE-TRADE WIND TROUGH TO THE EAST, ON THE
LEADING EDGE A BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, PART OF FRAGMENTING SHEAR LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS GUAM TUESDAY, BEFORE
SPREADING ACROSS THE CNMI TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRAGMENT MOVES ACROSS
THE MARIANAS AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE TRADE-WIND INVERSION,
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IS LIMITED, AND THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL MOSTLY
DEPENDING ON HOW MANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER A LOCATION DURING THE TIME
FRAME. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THESE FRAGMENTS MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS, THOUGH
AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF OF JAPAN AND THEN TRANSITIONS INTO
A SHEAR LINE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MARIANAS THIS
WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 7 TO 9 FEET BASED ON IPAN
BUOY AND LIMITED ALTIMETRY DATA. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS SEAS
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS AND THE TRADE SWELL
SUBSIDE, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 5 TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.. THERE IS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST-
FACING REEFS AND A MODERATE RISK ALONG NORTH- AND SOUTH-FACING REEFS,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE TRADE SWELL SUBSIDES AND SHOULD ALLOW THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO BECOME MODERATE ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS
TUESDAY EVENING.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BUILDING NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALLOW SURF TO BECOME ELEVATED AT
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS
INCREASING A FOOT OR TWO AS WELL, PEAKING AT 6 TO 8 FEET AMIDST
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE EMBEDDED AREAS OF ENHANCED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT DENOTE A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT KOSRAE, WHILE ARRIVING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AT POHNPEI. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO JUST MISS MAJURO TO THE
SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE WEATHER FEATURES INFLUENCING WESTERN MICRONESIA INCLUDE A SHEAR
LINE WHICH IS DUMPING FRAGMENTS TOWARD THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU, AND A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR, PALAU WHICH WILL AT
TIMES HOST TRADE-WIND TROUGHS RIDING TO THE NORTH OF IT.
CHUUK WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH TO THEIR EAST, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE 5 TO 7 FEET, BUT COULD BRIEFLY RISE TO BETWEEN 6
AND 8 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE ALL STILL FAIRLY BENIGN
THOUGH, AS FAR AS MARINE CONDITIONS GO.
YAP WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT, THEN SCATTERED TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO
9 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER HAZARDOUS,
BUT WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN START TO TILT
MORE TOWARD BENIGN STARTING WEDNESDAY; STILL AT THE HIGH END THOUGH.
KOROR, PALAU WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SCATTERED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, AND 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS MAKES FOR MARINE CONDITIONS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
BENIGN RANGE EARLY, BECOMING MORE BENIGN AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: CRUZ
MARIANAS: SCHANK
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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