975
FXPQ50 PGUM 180801
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 PM CHST WED FEB 18 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND RIP CURRENTS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
GUAM AND ROTA WHILE TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED TO
LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THURSDAY AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PUSH FRAGMENTS
OF A SHEAR LINE AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DECAYING INTO A SHEAR LINE AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE SHEAR LINE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ESPECIALLY IF
THIS FEATURE IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PULLED IN FROM FEATURES TO THE SOUTH.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS TO 5
TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN
AND DECAY INTO A SHEAR LINE LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND. THE SHEAR LINE WILL BRING PERIODS
OF FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG BREEZES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 10 FEET WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS AND SURF
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM IS SOME LOCALLY INTENSE CONVECTION
NEAR KOSRAE. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
AND THIS LOOKED GOOD. WE RETAINED THAT WORDING AND ADDED WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT THERE. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE WILL SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST AT MAJURO AFTER TONIGHT, AND WILL POHNPEI SEE
INCREASING COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR POHNPEI, WE BELIEVE THIS
WILL DEVELOP AND ADDED SIMILAR WORDING TO THE FORECAST. AS FOR
MAJURO, WE MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING INTO TOMORROW, AS AT
LEAST THE MORNING SHOULD FEATURE INCREASED RAINFALL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT/HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA DEVELOPING SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK AS THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE) LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH (TO BETWEEN 4N AND 8N) WHILE STRENGTHENING.
AS FOR SURF, INUNDATION, AND MARINE CONDITIONS, THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP SURF UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.
WITH THIS IN MIND, SURF WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND WE
MAINTAINED THE HEADLINES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT MAJURO, MINOR
INUNDATION THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET (LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN REEFS OF MAJURO) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS EVENING
ARE A TRADE-WIND TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK, AND A SHEAR LINE NEAR YAP AND
JUST NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU.
AT CHUUK, THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT TROUGH JUST BRUSHES THEM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CHALLENGING
FOR SMALL CRAFT MARINERS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
BENIGN.
FOR YAP, SHOWERS ARE REALLY STARTING TO FILL IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
YAP ON SATELLITE, SO WENT HEAVY HANDED ON THE FORECAST. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY, SCATTERED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
ISOLATED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR THE HIGH END OF
BENIGN FOR SMALL CRAFT MARINERS.
KOROR, PALAU WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, CREATING
BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: SCHANK/WHISNANT
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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