140
AXPQ20 PGUM 200117
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1117 AM CHST FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH RUNS FROM EQ157E TO 5N153E. THIS TROUGH IS MAKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON.
THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF INTENSITY.
A SECOND TRADE-WIND TROUGH REACHES FROM EQ147E TO 3N141E THEN PIVOTING
TO 6N142E. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP PROPER. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO
MOVING WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF INTENSITY.
A THIRD TRADE-WIND TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 13N164E TO 19N164E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR WAKE ISLAND. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING WEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF INTENSITY AND COULD AFFECT THE MARIANAS NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHEAR LINE BELOW.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N163E THEN EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST TO 20N159E. IT THEN CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
SHEAR LINE, PASSING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING POINTS: FROM 16N150E TO
16N146E TO 12N139E TO 10N137E TO 10N130E. THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ARE
CREATING LARGE AREAS OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY SHOWERS
ALONG AND UP TO 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY EAST OF 138E, AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND UP TO 300 MILES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WEST OF 138E, INCLUDING THE MARIANAS NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THIS SHEAR LINE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING, BUT COULD BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON ITS WAY DOWN FROM JAPAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS REINFORCED SHEAR LINE COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARIANAS, AND COULD
PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 15 FEET, STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS.
..ITCZ
THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) EXTENDS FROM 7N156E TO
4N162E TO 4N180. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI TO NEAR KOSRAE TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF
MAJURO. THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WAVER AND MEANDER NORTH
AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF INTENSITY THROUGH SUNDAY.
STANKO
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