974
AXPQ20 PGUM 210125
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1125 AM CHST SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
SURFACE TROUGHS...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND N OF A BUFFER, DISCUSSED IN OTHER SYSTEMS
SECTION BELOW. THE ROUGH EXTENDS ESE FROM NEAR 8N130E TO END NEAR
4N138E. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A BAND OF CONVERGENCE N OF A
BUFFER CIRCULATION TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM ACROSS PALAU
AND YAP. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SSW OVER THE COMING
DAYS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
THERE ARE A FEW TRADE-WIND TROUGHS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST IS FOUND E OF YAP PROPER, EXTENDING N FROM NEAR 2N140E TO END
NEAR 9N140E. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE BUFFER CONVERGENCE
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER E YAP STATE. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W
TO SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.
ANOTHER WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS FOUND SW OF WENO. THIS TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH A BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BUFFER,
DESCRIBED IN THE OTHER SYSTEMS SECTION BELOW, TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM SSE OF SATAWAL. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W, ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AS IT PROCEEDS. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE THE TROUGH.
THE NEXT TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS FOUND E OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE,
EXTENDING NNE FROM NEAR 2N165E TO END NEAR 8N168E. THIS TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK ITCZ TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OF THE
TROUGH.
AN ELONGATED TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS FOUND NNE OF POHNPEI, EXTENDING
NNE TO END W OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR 20N166E. PATCHY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE W AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE
INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH.
THE LAST TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS FOUND OVER THE N MARSHALL ISLANDS,
EXTENDING NW FROM NEAR 12N178E TO END E OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR 19N171E.
PATCHY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 25N170E AND EXTENDS WSW TO NEAR
20N160E, THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO 17N157E, ACROSS THE
N CNMI NEAR 17N146E TO END NEAR 11N132E. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG AND N OF THE SHEAR LINE AND COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT UP TO 225 MILES N OF
THE SHEAR LINE AND 200 MILES N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND INCREASED SHOWERS TO THE CNMI LATER THIS EVENING OR SUNDAY, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY W, WITH
THE S END OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR
LINE.
A BUFFER CIRCULATION IS FOUND NEAR 1N137E, WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE FOUND TO THE ESE AND NW OF THE BUFFER. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS INTERACTING WITH THE CONVERGENCE NW OF THE BUFFER, ENHANCING
CONVECTION. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION, ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM PALAU TO THE EQUATOR, AS FAR E
AS 147E. ALONG THE E END OF THE CONVERGENCE BAND, A WEAK TRADE-WIND
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH IT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5N AND THE EQUATOR. THE BUFFER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT W AND LIKELY WEAKEN, WITH THE CONVERGENCE BANDS
LINKING UP AND DRIFTING W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE TRADE-WIND AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
..ITCZ
A WEAK ITCZ REMAINS OVER THE REGION, BEGINNING S OF WENO, CHUUK NEAR
1N152E, EXTENDING ENE, PASSING OVER POHNPEI NEAR 6N158E, THEN TURNS
ESE, PASSING ACROSS KOSRAE NEAR 5N163E. IT CONTINUES ESE TO NEAR
1N175E, WHERE IT TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NE, PASSING BEYOND THE DATE
LINE NEAR 4N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI WHERE A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ.
E OF 163E TO 174E, ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITH THE ITCZ. FROM
174E TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE
ITCZ. THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE IN BOTH STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSITY VARYING AS WEAK TRADE-WIND
TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE REGION.
KLEESCHULTE
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