118
AXPQ20 PGUM 220005
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1005 AM CHST SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A NET
TODAY, AND IT STRETCHES FROM EQ145E TO A BUFFER CIRCULATION NEAR
2N138E, CONTINUING WEST TO 2N130E WHERE IT EXITS GUAM'S AOR. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BUFFER
CIRCULATION, AND EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NET. HERE,
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. THE NET IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 2N THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A SUBTLE TRADE-WIND TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR HELEN'S REEF NEAR
3N133E THROUGH KOROR BEFORE ENDING NEAR 13N134E. MODEST SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS AS IT EXITS GUAM'S AOR
TO THE WEST.
A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH IN THE TRADES BISECTS CHUUK AND POHNPEI,
STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM EQ154E TO 14N156E. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION, CONSISTING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, IS FOCUSED BETWEEN 5N AND 9N ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THIS FEATURE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE PATTERN ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS CROSSING THE DATE LINE, STRETCHING
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR MAKIN NEAR 2N175E TO 8N180. WIDELY-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO
MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE, AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HEADS WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND VIGOR POSSIBLE.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM 25N175E, WHERE IT ENTERS
GUAM'S AOR, TO WEST OF WAKE ISLAND AT 19N161E. HERE, THE COLD
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE WHILE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO SAIPAN IN THE CNMI. IT THEN CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
11N130E, WHERE IT EXITS GUAM'S AOR. THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS EXTENDS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST FASHION TO THE
NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE, GENERALLY WITHIN 300 MILES OF IT. HERE,
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS IS COMMON WEST OF 155E, WITH
SEAS MAINLY IN THE 9 TO 12 FOOT RANGE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FROM THE CNMI EAST TO 155E WHERE A POCKET OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
IS EMBEDDED IN THE HIGHER WIND MAXIMA. HERE, ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS
OF 11 TO 14 FEET. ONCE YOU GET EAST OF 155, WINDS DECREASE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS.
HOWEVER, A NEW SHEAR LINE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND OVERTAKE THE
CURRENT SHEAR LINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, PUSHING IT
FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR OR BEYOND 10N. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SPEED
AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS DISSOLVED, WITH TODAY'S
CONVERGENCE TIED TO ANY TROUGHS IN THE TRADE FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE GFS MODELS INDICATES THE ITCZ IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
DOLL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page