012
FXPQ50 PGUM 080936
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
736 PM CHST SUN MAR 8 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS JUST OUTSIDE THE
COASTAL WATERS. IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS SWELL OF 6 FEET AT 8 SECONDS,
HOWEVER THIS BUOY IS SHIELDED BY THE ISLAND OF GUAM FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN SWELLS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHT TODAY, THIS IS DUE TO THE NEAR MISS
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. INVEST 95W REMAINS AS A BROAD DISORGANIZED
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
WESTERN WATERS AND OVER THE NORTHERN CNMI. A SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI. ALL THREE OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A
DYNAMIC WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE MARIANAS. THIS WET WEATHER
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK, MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF A DRIER PERIOD MAY
BE IN STORE.
MARINE
A BUSY MARINE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN
ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTH SWELL WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE SWELL UP TO
11 FEET, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO FRESH WITH PERIODS OF
STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE TO GALE GUSTS AND SEAS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND A SHEAR LINE OVER
THE CNMI.
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM INVEST 95W INTERACTING WITH A SHEAR LINE WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THE MARIANAS EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUDSLIDES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED.
GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT A POTENTIAL STALL OF 95W. IF THIS OCCURS AND
IT DOES SO WITH 95W NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS, THEN THE
RAINFALL FORECAST WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF INVEST AREA 95W IS CENTERED NEAR 11N
140E, EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. 95W HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, CROSSING THE MARIANAS THIS WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH BECAUSE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 95W STALLING NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE MARIANAS. THIS COULD EXTEND THE RAINY PATTERN SEEN THERE
RECENTLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR 95W TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS MEDIUM, USUALLY INDICATING THAT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, JUST
NOT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON 95W, REFER
TO THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER ABPW10 PGTW, AND THE TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
UNDER WMO HEADER AXPQ20 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE A NORTH SWELL THAT'LL
MAINTAIN HIGH SURF CONCERNS FOR NORTH-FACING REEFS AT POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, SURF MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME ELEVATED FOR NORTH-FACING REEFS OF MAJURO MONDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IT REMAINING BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS OF 12 FEET IS
FAIRLY HIGH. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS MAY
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
DECREASING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WISE, A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE REGION IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW, PERHAPS INCREASING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL PERIODICALLY, BUT OVERALL WE DON'T SEE ANY BIG RAIN EVENTS
ON THE HORIZON.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS WEEK ARE
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH APPROACHING CHUUK FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO NEAR KOROR
AND YAP AND THEN TOWARD THE MARIANAS.
CHUUK CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH EXTENDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT,
DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FEET TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
STAY NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THROUGH MONDAY, THIS IS JUST
SUFFICIENT TO REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING REEFS.
YAP WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEAS WILL CAUSE CHALLENGING
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS REQUIRING
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.
KOROR, PALAU WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME 15 KNOT VALUES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS, BUT IS JUST
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH
FACING REEFS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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