138
AXPQ20 PGUM 140009
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1009 AM CHST SAT MAR 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
SURFACE TROUGHS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT EQ131E AND STRETCHES
NORTHEAST TO THE REMNANTS OF NURI (03W) SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR
11N144E. THE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF GUAM'S COASTAL WATERS TO NEAR MINAMITORISHIMA AT 24154E,
EXITING GUAM'S AOR NORTHEAST OF THERE AT 25N155E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF THIS FEATURE,
EXCEPT NEAR THE REMNANTS OF NURI, WHERE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLANKS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST WHILE DECELERATING WHILE THE REMNANTS
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG IT THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, A COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MERGE WITH THESE FEATURES AND
TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH, SEPARATING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
FLOW, FROM EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN TRADES, STRETCHES FROM EQ152E
NORTHWARD THROUGH CHUUK, ENDING AT MINAMITORISHIMA. ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING. A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
36 HOURS AS THIS TROUGH STALLS, WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REALIGNS/CHANGES.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS GUAM'S AOR NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN-
MOST PORTIONS OF THE CNMI AT 25N146E. THIS FRONT STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO 11N130E, WHERE IT EXIT'S GUAM'S AOR. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CUMULUS
CONGESTUS FAIRLY PROMINENT IMMEDIATE BEHIND AND WITHIN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES BEHIND IT, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE ALSO PRESENT AS YOU'D
EXPECT, WITH SCATTEROMETER ANALYSIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 50 MILES TO THE NORTH
OF IT. AFTER 50 MILES THOUGH, SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE, WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS PROBABLE. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, SLOWING AS IT
MERGES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN LIKELY
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THEREAFTER.
AN SHEAR LINE THAT WAS REINVIGORATED TWO DAYS AGO HAS MAINTAINED
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND SETTLED SOUTH, NOW ENTERING
GUAM'S AOR AT 10N180. IT THEN STRETCHES WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MAJURO, BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST TO ENEWETAK IN THE RMI, WHERE IT
ENDS NEAR 11N161E, WHERE IT ENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG AND WITHIN 100 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST BEYOND THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ HAS REFORMED THIS MORNING. IT'S CENTERED BETWEEN 4N AND
7N AND STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF KOSRAE EAST TO THE DATELINE AND
BEYOND. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER, THE MODELS INDICATE THE
ITCZ WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND
WEST.
DOLL
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