651
AXPQ20 PGUM 020111
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1111 AM CHST SAT MAY 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM NEAR 4N130E, PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS OF
PALAU AND THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTION YAP STATE AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH
CHUUK, POHNPEI, AND KOSRAE STATES, BEFORE ENDING NEAR MAJURO AS IT
MERGES WITH THE ITCZ. ACROSS PALAU AND YAP STATE, SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY
SPOTTY TO LOW-END SCATTERED ALONG THE NET, FOUND MAINLY ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NET, WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVECTION.
FARTHER EAST, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON, POHNPEI, AND KOSRAE WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND WEAK AREAS OF EMBEDDED AREAS OF
VORTICITY WITHIN THE NET. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AS THE NET INTERACTS WITH THE
ITCZ. THE NET IS EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH THE ITCZ AND WEAK CIRCULATIONS TRY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NET.
FOR PALAU AND YAP STATE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF PALAU AND YAP. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND CHUUK, POHNPEI, KOSRAE, AND MAJURO.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
BETWEEN 10N AND 25N A MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND PATTERN
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. SPOTTY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK,
WESTWARD MOVING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS CAN BE FOUND WEST AND EAST OF THE
MARIANAS AND AROUND WAKE ISLAND. A MORE NOTABLE TRADE-WIND TROUGH IN
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA, JUST EAST OF 130E IS
PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
CENTERED NEAR 13N131E AND ALSO STEADILY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE
MARIANAS AND WAKE ISLAND MAY SEE BRIEF UPTICKS IN SPOTTY SHOWERS AS
THESE TROUGHS PASS NEAR THE ISLANDS.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION,
ENTERING THE REGION AT 25N142E, JUST NORTH OF IWO TO, AND EXITING
THE REGION AT 21N130E. WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING, THE BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FRAGMENTING AND IS MOSTLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN CLOUD COVER, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN, AND EXTENDS UP TO 250 MILES BEHIND (NORTHWEST) OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE
ISLANDS IN THE MARIANAS OR MICRONESIA AS IT REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE REGION.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WITHIN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 7N180 AND ENDS NEAR 7N174E, NEAR MAJURO, WHERE IT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE NET. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ALONG THE ITCZ. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ, EAST OF WOTJE AND UTIRIK IN THE
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. LOOKING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ITCZ MAY START TO
FRAGMENT AS A TROUGH OR POTENTIALLY A CIRCULATION STARTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ITCZ THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE NET.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NUMEROUS TO AT TIMES WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI STATE AND THEN INTO CHUUK STATE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS NEAR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCHANK
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