531
FXPQ50 PGUM 030655
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
455 PM CHST WED JUN 3 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SEVERAL SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REGION. ALTIMETRY AND
BUOY DATA SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
DISCUSSION
A DRY WEAK TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THE AFTERNOONS, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ISLAND-EFFECT SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND TOO LOW OF LIFT EXPECTED. OVERALL, FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MARIANAS.
MARINE
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, SEA STATE CONSISTS OF A PERSISTENT TRADE SWELL AND A
SMALL WEST TRANSITIONING TO NORTH SWELL FROM DISTANT TROPICAL
STORM JANGMI. COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, BEFORE
BECOMING 3 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
DESPITE A FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE), THE NET (NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH), AND WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING CONVECTIVELY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO HIGH-LEVEL STRATUS AND CIRRUS. WITH
THAT SAID, A FAIRLY-PRONOUNCED AREA OF GOOD DIRECTIONAL, BUT WEAK
SPEED, CONVERGENCE SITS BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THIS COULD FOSTER
SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMANCE
OF CONVECTION, WE TRENDED POPS (PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION)
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT. STILL, AT LEAST LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED THURSDAY NIGHT AT MAJURO. FOR THE
MARINERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WENO AND MUCH OF CHUUK
STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS PALAU AND YAP STATE.
ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS CONTINUED HIGH-END
(50%) SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WENO TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS YAP STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK IS LEADING TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO DROP ON THURSDAY TO LOW-
END SCATTERED (30%) BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO HIGH-END SCATTERED
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS CHUUK STATE.
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR YAP AND PALAU WAS TO REMOVE WORDING OF ISLAND
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH BOTH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED, AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER ALL MEET THE THRESHOLD FOR ISLAND SHOWERS; THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE DIVERGENCE IS
LIKELY LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THIS DOES LOOK TO CHANGE FRIDAY AND ISLAND SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE
BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH A FUTURE PACKAGE. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINED SEAS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS THE REGION. A
NORTHWEST SWELL ACROSS PALAU AND YAP WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER THE COMING DAYS, WHILE A NORTHEAST SWELL ACROSS CHUUK
WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHERLY. MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BENIGN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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