727
FXPQ50 PGUM 040603
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST THU JUN 4 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SEVERAL SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REGION. ALTIMETRY AND
BUOY DATA SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET.
DISCUSSION
A DRY WEAK TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THE AFTERNOONS, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ISLAND-EFFECT SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS. OVERALL, FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
MARIANAS.
MARINE
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SEA STATE CONSISTS OF A PERSISTENT TRADE SWELL. COMBINED SEAS OF 3
TO 4 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES MAY BUILD AROUND
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
REALLY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY'S THINKING, AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS/ANALYSIS. IN GENERAL, LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
MAJURO, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MAYBE ITCZ FORMATION COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MARINERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS YAP AND PALAU, AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WENO. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN
3 AND 5 FEET.
THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS CHUUK STATE AND WENO THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT LOW-END (30%) SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL SEEN ON SATELLITE.
CHUUK REMAINS IN A REGION OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM SEVERAL
FEATURES INCLUDING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN YAP STATE, A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, AND A BUFFER CIRCULATION NEAR THE EQUATOR
SOUTH OF POHNPEI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, BUT THEY DIFFER SEVERITY. THE GFS IS
FAVORING NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAVORING LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE
EURO WITH POPS OF 40% TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOR YAP AND PALAU, THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN YAP STATE. FOR YAP, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
LOW APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALREADY BECOMING
ENHANCED ACROSS PALAU. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO GO FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE ISLAND ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. BENIGN COMBINED SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FEET LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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